Favorite 'Dogs: Back Northwestern Over Oregon; Ravens To Upset Bills

It's Halloween weekend and things could get very spooky on the gridiron. Here's why I'm backing a couple of underdogs this weekend. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. In 2025, Penn State was coming off a trip to the College Football Playoff semifinals the previous year and entered the season as a consensus national title contender. Then the wheels came off and never went back on, as the Nittany Lions finished the regular season 6-6. A year later, another Big Ten team, Oregon, is following a similar path. Before the season, the Ducks were picked by many to win it all. A couple of months later, right before the trick-or-treating festivities begin, they are essentially eliminated from the Playoff conversation. Now, Oregon will face a hungry Northwestern team with a ferocious ground game, one that is averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. Oregon will be without quarterback Dante Moore for the remainder of the season. I don’t expect this lifeless bunch to bounce back in what has been a nightmare season. Guessing when — and if — Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson might play is a challenging proposition. But with the Ravens in last place entering November, I’ll bet on the two-time league MVP suiting up for the first time in nearly a month. While the Bills have a former MVP of their own in quarterback Josh Allen, their defense is still quite suspect. The Bills allowing 30.8 points per game (30th), alongside 386 yards per game (31st). The Ravens are 4-3. They are looking up at every other team in the AFC North and are desperate for a win on Sunday. It seems like Jackson is close to a return. And if he does, this is very much anyone’s game.

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QB Notebook: Settle Down With Your J.J. McCarthy Narratives; Time To Bench Daniel Jones?

Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we'll evaluate J.J. McCarthy's first start for the Giants, figure out what's behind Daniel Jones' regression, and look at a defensive trend that's giving (most) passers across the league fits. Let’s talk quarterbacks. The 2024 first-round pick is certainly making the most of this opportunity to start for the Giants, but let’s throttle back the hot takes before we anoint McCarthy as the next Sam Darnold or tar and feather his former coach, Kevin O’Connell, for not getting more out of him. Sunday’s game against the Texans was arguably the best of his career against a quality defense — so that 2025 game against the Cowboys defense doesn’t qualify — and it produced the most throwing highlights. McCarthy hit Malik Nabers with a perfectly placed back-shoulder ball on a fade route from the slot. He lined up with Nabers again on a tight-window corner route. He hit Malachi Fields on a sail route between two defenders. Those are undoubtedly good throws, but they're the kind of throws we’ve already seen McCarthy make in Minnesota. McCarthy’s always been willing to make those highly difficult throws to the perimeter; whether he can do it consistently is another matter. McCarthy throws with enough velocity to pull them off, but it takes a lot of effort. Here he nearly throws himself out of his shoes trying to muscle a ball to the sideline. Here’s another max-effort throw that ends up looking like a sinking fastball the catcher has to dig out. When McCarthy consistently hits these deep perimeter throws, he looks like a starting-level quarterback. But these aren’t high-probability throws — not even for quarterbacks with elite arm talent. McCarthy had the lowest dropback success rate of any starter in Week 7, which illustrates how volatile a passing attack built around deep throws can be. And McCarthy still doesn’t have other pitches to go to when he can't connect. He lacks the precision to consistently work underneath and the touch to throw over the middle. McCarthy’s biggest issue, which the Vikings tried desperately to fix, is his desire to throw every ball as hard as he possibly can. This can make short passes harder to catch than they need to be. If McCarthy can keep hitting deep, perimeter passes consistently, I’d expect this hot start to turn into a full-on breakout season. He’s off to a good start, hitting 8 of 13 attempts over 10 air yards and aimed outside the numbers, but it’ll take a much bigger sample to prove he can do it repeatedly. I’ll buy into the redemption narrative if this continues, or if McCarthy shows he can stay effective when those deep throws aren’t connecting. With the Colts firing long-time general manager Chris Ballard and trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for pennies on the dollar, Indianapolis could be in the middle of a deadline fire sale. If this team is waving the white flag on the 2026 season, I’ve got a suggestion: bench Daniel Jones and see what the young backups, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard, can do. Head coach Shane Steichen says he’s not considering benching Jones after he threw away a winnable game against the Vikings on Sunday. His game-ending interception was his seventh of the season, and the performance dragged his QBR to 40.3, 31st in the league. That’s lower than his 2024 QBR, when the Giants cut him midseason. The 2026 version of Jones looks a lot like the quarterback who flamed out in New York two seasons ago. And that’s why it’s probably a good time for Indianapolis to sit him. Jones doesn’t look fully healthy, which makes sense considering that he’s less than a year removed from tearing an Achilles. Watching Jones play in 2026 feels a lot like watching Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, when the veteran quarterback was coming off the same injury. He doesn’t look very mobile—which matters more for Jones than it did for Cousins—and looks uncomfortable when throwing on the move. The numbers back that up, too. Jones is averaging 1.3 yards per attempt when throwing on the run, per Next Gen Stats. That’s not even a full Kyler Murray worth of yards! In 2025, he averaged 7.7 yards per throw on the move. His completion percentage has dropped from 73% in 2025 to 25% this season. His success rate has plummeted from 50% to 13%. Jones’ inability to complete passes on the move is the main difference between his performance this season and what the Colts saw in 2025. Last season, the passing game was built around Jones’ ability to move. The Colts used him on bootlegs and nakeds to move the pocket and simplify his reads. Those plays haven’t been nearly as effective in 2026, and it’s had a domino effect on the rest of the offense. Jones hasn’t been accurate downfield, and he’s not a quick processor who can carve up defenses with short passes. Jones has always needed an offense built around his skill set to succeed. I’m not sure that offense exists with Jones in his current form. I doubt Richardson or Leonard would improve the Colts offense, but sitting Jones would protect him from further injury and prevent bad habits from forming and carrying over to next season. It’s been 17 years since Jim Johnson’s death, but the former Eagles defensive coordinator's influence is still felt across the league. Defensive coaches across the league are spamming his signature "double A-gap" fronts to put NFL quarterbacks in a mental blender. Even if you’re unfamiliar with the concept, you’ll recognize this defensive look if you’ve watched any games this season: two linebackers flank the center while the rest of the defensive line is spread outside of the guards. Defensive coordinators have been throwing these looks at quarterbacks for over a quarter-century, but they’ve really ramped up their usage over the last few seasons. In 2025, we saw 684 dropbacks against the double A-gap looks, per Pro Football Focus; in 2026, we’re on pace for 928! That hasn’t been a fun development for quarterbacks, who are averaging -0.24 expected points added per play on those snaps. Most of those have come in obvious passing situations, when defensive play callers can get creative with blitzes and coverage disguises. Putting six dudes on the line of scrimmage forces the offense to adjust their protection. It also creates uneasiness for the quarterback, who has to be ready for an all-out blitz. Defenses have sent an all-out blitz on just over 13% of their double A-gap snaps this season, but the offense still needs a solid protection plan just in case. They’ll often keep a running back in to block, which can also play into a defense’s hands when they drop out. It gives them one fewer receiver to cover. These looks can really mess with a quarterback’s process if they don’t have trust in their protection. And defensive coordinators can sniff that out from a mile away. If they sense any vulnerability, they’ll crowd the line of scrimmage and date the offense to sort it all out. The Eagles have seen the most double A-gap looks this season with 24. The Colts are second (23), followed by the Packers and Buccaneers (22), with most of those coming against rookie Jalon Daniels. You’re most likely to see these "mugged" looks against raw quarterbacks, but even some of the better quarterbacks have had issues against them this season. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen all have sub-80 passer ratings against double A-gap fronts, per PFF. Meanwhile, wily vets like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have carved them up. Jordan Love is my favorite quarterback to watch deal with these looks. His ability to make those fadeaways throws combined with his ambition as a downfield passer makes him a particularly fun watch. Love’s also a quick processor—an underappreciated facet of his game—and Packers coach Matt LaFleur called him "the best I've been around in terms of protections and adjustments," which also helps him face the pressure, real or imagined, created by the double-A gap looks. They test every aspect of playing quarterback. That’s what made Caleb Williams's crunch-time throw against the Patriots so impressive. The Patriots, one of the league leaders in double A-gap snaps, crowded the line of scrimmage showing blitz. Williams made an adjustment to protection just in case New England sent the house, and when they didn’t, he kept his nerve in the pocket, read out the coverage, and found Rome Odunze in a small pocket of space downfield with a marvelous throw. When a quarterback makes a play like that, the defensive coordinator just has to tip his hat and dare him to do it again. The best defensive coordinators will keep throwing these looks out there, waiting for a quarterback to slip up. The Buccaneers asked very little of Baker Mayfield in his return from a thumb injury. He attempted just three passes over 6 air yards, but he did hit a longer scramble-drill pass for a touchdown. That was enough to beat a Panthers team that played as if it had never practiced before. Atlanta’s defense should provide a better test for Mayfield. Since I’ve already covered my actual pick for throw of the week—Williams hitting Odunze in crunch time against the Patriots—I’ll go with another one from the Bears quarterback. This fireball that moved the chains on a key third-and-11. That ball traveled 29.6 yards in 1.1 seconds. It was a rocket and Williams gets style points for side-stepping the rush before firing it off, per Next Gen Stats. I’m not sure what Jones was thinking when he let this pass go. Tight end Will Mallory is bracketed by two defenders and Harrison Smith is in perfect position to pick off the pass up the seam.

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Which Bad Team Emerges to Win NFC South? Outlining Which Team Might Have Inside Track

The NFC South is seen by most as the worst division in the NFL, and it's a well-earned distinction. Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule in 2021, only twice has a team won a division title with a losing record, and both came from the NFC South: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 (8-9) and the Carolina Panthers in 2025 (8-9), who both lost at home in the wild-card round. The division hasn't done much to change that perception this year. Carolina is atop the division with a 3-3 record, which would have it alone in last place in the NFC North or AFC North. The NFC South is hardly the only bad division in the NFL. The AFC South, despite having the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars, has fewer total wins than the NFC South, and by point differential, the NFC East is somehow 47 points worse. The fact remains that some team will win the division, and that's not an easy call to make. Three days ago, the Bucs had the worst record in the NFC at 1-5. Now, they're 1.5 games out of first with a tiebreaker edge on the Panthers after a surprising 43-13 win in Charlotte. If the Panthers lose at the Packers on Thursday night, you could argue that the winner of Sunday's Atlanta Falcons-Buccaneers game in Tampa might become the team to beat in the division. Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played with backup quarterbacks, with the Falcons opening 0-2 with Cooper Rush starting and the Buccaneers going 1-2 with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels stepping in when Baker Mayfield injured his thumb. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two games, and the Bucs rushed for 258 yards in routing the Panthers, so there's momentum on both sides. Sunday's Falcons-Buccaneers game has both teams' strengths going directly against each other, too. Atlanta ranks sixth in rushing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards allowed; Tampa Bay ranks third and second in the same categories. So will the Falcons' Bijan Robinson take control of the game, or the Bucs' Bucky Irving? To add to the fun, Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, had the same job with the Falcons the last two years, and back in January, Mayfield took a shot at new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski, upset that he didn't hear from his old coach when the Browns traded him to Carolina in 2022. "Still waiting on a text/call from him after I got shipped off like a piece of garbage," Mayfield wrote over the offseason. "Can’t wait to see you twice a year, Coach." For a division that's close in the standings — it could be a single game separating top and bottom by Sunday night — the three division games haven't been close at all. The Bucs won by 30 against the Panthers, who beat the Falcons (with Rush at QB) by 31, and the Falcons beat the Saints by 21. New Orleans has lost four of five entering its Week 8 bye, but the Saints also have more time to right the ship, with four division games in the final five weeks of the season. The Bucs are the only NFC South team that has outscored their opponents over the entire season, as they're only the third team in the last 15 years to be 2-5 and have a positive point differential. And it's a wild precedent, but the other two teams to do so — the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars — not only made the playoffs from a 2-5 start, but also each won a playoff game. Tampa Bay has the best defense in the division right now, ranking third in yards allowed, well ahead of Atlanta (19), Carolina (22) and New Orleans (28). The Bucs have 10 sacks in the last two games, so if Mayfield's healthy return can spark the offense, the other side of the ball is doing enough to win games. Division games will likely decide this year's NFC South champ, but it's also fair to look at remaining strength of schedule. The Bucs are 0-5 against teams currently with a winning record, but they also have the fewest games remaining against such opponents. They have only three games against teams with records better than .500, fewer than the Saints (4), Falcons (5) and especially the Panthers (7). Carolina's non-division opponents are a combined 32-15 this season, while the five teams Tampa Bay has lost to are a combined 24-9 right now. We saw this coming before the season, but with news that the Las Vegas Raiders will stick with Kirk Cousins for now and keep Fernando Mendoza on the bench despite four straight losses, it continues to be a remarkably quiet season for rookie quarterbacks. Seven weeks in, rookie quarterbacks have combined for just four touchdown passes (and three were from Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels) and that's the lowest in any season since 2007, when there was one at this point. There were at least 20 touchdown passes thrown by rookie quarterbacks in eight of nine seasons between 2016-24, then just 14 last year, now four. The rookie we might see starting next? Arizona Cardinals rookie Carson Beck, a third-round pick out of Miami (Fla.) who has yet to take a snap, is waiting behind veteran starter Jacoby Brissett. Brissett isn't the reason the Cardinals have lost five of six, as they have the NFL's worst defense, giving up a league-high 29.7 points per game. But that means they're constantly trailing and Brissett has thrown an NFL-high 282 passes. There isn't an easy spot to pivot to either rookie, though. Las Vegas' bye isn't until Week 13, and Arizona's is Week 14, and coaches don't want to have a quarterback's first NFL experience be a run of crushing defeats. If there's a market for a veteran passer at the trade deadline, Cousins and Brissett would be natural targets, so that could create an opening to put rookies on the field as well. It's that time of the season where a coach's patience with a struggling kicker runs out. We've already seen the Los Angeles Rams move on from Harrison Mevis, and three other NFL kickers have already missed five field goals this season. The biggest name is the Kansas City Chiefs' Harrison Butker, who has never missed more than six field goals in a season, but is 11-for-16 after two more misses in Sunday's loss to Seattle. He hasn't made a field goal longer than 50 yards and is 2-for-6 on 50+ kicks, after being a 66 percent kicker on 50+ entering this season. "He's been one of the most consistent kickers in football," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said after the game. "He's off a bit, so got to fix it." Two kickers who have earned much less leeway are rookies: Green Bay Packers kicker Trey Smack, who is 11-for-16 like Butker, and New York Giants kicker Dominic Zvada, who is 13-for-18. Smack, a sixth-round pick, has missed four field goals in the last three weeks, including two in a three-point loss to the Lions on Sunday. Zvada, an undrafted rookie, has all five misses in the last three weeks, split between two games close enough that they went to overtime. Cutting a kicker can be expensive. San Francisco 49ers kicker Eddy Piñeiro has missed seven total kicks this year, including an extra point Sunday that meant San Francisco was down two scores late in a 29-20 loss to the Falcons. However, the 49ers signed Piñeiro to a contract this year that includes $8 million guaranteed over the next two years, so it's not as simple a financial decision as most kicker cuts are. And what if you can't even get your offense into field-goal range? Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has five field-goal attempts in seven games, putting him on pace for 12 over a full season — seven fewer than his career low in his 10-year career. It'd be fine if he were busy with extra points, but Philadelphia is 29th in scoring.

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Reunion In The Bay: 49ers Reportedly Land DT DeForest Buckner From Colts In Trade

DeForest Buckner is heading back to where it all started. The Indianapolis Colts are trading the three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2027 fourth-round pick, according to The Ringer. The deal came hours after the Colts sent guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks, a sign that Indianapolis is fully committing to selling ahead of the Nov. 10 trade deadline. The Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard after a 26-20 Week 6 loss to the previously winless Tennessee Titans dropped them to 2-4. They fell to 2-5 with their loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Buckner was drafted with the seventh overall pick by the 49ers in 2016 out of Oregon, and he spent his first four seasons there. He was named the team’s MVP in 2019, when the 49ers reached the Super Bowl. San Francisco traded him to Indianapolis the following March for the No. 13 overall pick, which it used on defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw. Buckner, 32, has been productive again this season after neck surgery cut his 2025 campaign short. He has 31 tackles, four sacks, a fumble recovery and three passes defended in seven games. He's also 14th in pressures (20) among defensive tackles, per Pro Football Focus. The 6-1 49ers needed help up front after injuries depleted their defensive line as star pass rusher Nick Bosa has missed five games due to a calf strain and Alfred Collins is out for the season due to a torn patellar tendon. The move continues a trend of San Francisco bringing back familiar faces after it reunited with linebacker Dre Greenlaw and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. this past offseason. Buckner now returns to a 49ers team chasing a Super Bowl, the same goal it had when it traded him away six years ago.

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2026 NFL Power Rankings Week 8: Does Anyone Want To Be The Best Team In Football?

Who is the best team in football? That’s not an easy question to answer anymore. The last undefeated team (Minnesota Vikings) barely has a functional offense. The powerful San Francisco 49ers have turned the ball over eight times in their past three games. The Kansas City Chiefs were just pounded by the defending champion Seattle Seahawks, who already have three losses. Every team in the top 10 has at least one undeniable flaw. But don’t worry. In a year where the only consensus is that there is no consensus, I’ve got some ideas. And I’ll sort it all out for you in my Week 8 NFL Power Rankings. *Super Bowl odds courtesy of DraftKings Super Bowl odds: +60000 (28th-best) The Chargers get the place of honor at the bottom of the rankings as the last remaining winless team in the NFL. And what kind of odds would you have gotten on that before the season started? This is a team that was a sleeper Super Bowl contender not that long ago. Depending on what book you used, the over/under on them for the season was either 9.5 or 10.5 wins. Now, will they even get to four? Better question: When will they get their first win of the season? For obvious reasons, circle their Nov. 22 game at home against everybody’s favorite opponent: the Jets. Next game: @ Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Chargers are the only team in the NFL that has not won a game this season. Super Bowl odds: +80000 (tied for 29th-best) Pick your adjective: Inexcusable. Laughable. Disgusting. Predictable. They all apply to the way Aaron Glenn’s lifeless, undisciplined, unprepared team lost to the previously winless Dolphins in front of their disgruntled home fans this past Sunday. There have been worse losses in Jets history, but it’s hard to think of any right now. This was hideous. I’d rank them 39th if I could. That mess killed any goodwill they had built up with their relatively competitive start to the season. And yes, it was the final nail in Aaron Glenn’s tenure. He’ll just be killing time the rest of the season until he’s finally out of a job. Next game: vs. Raiders (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The only rookies with 100-plus receiving yards and a receiving touchdown in a game this season both play for the Jets: Omar Cooper Jr., who has done it twice in three games, and Kenyon Sadiq. Super Bowl odds: +100000 (tied for last) Admit it. You knew the Dolphins were going to beat the Jets on Sunday. I mean, if they were going to win one game all season long, that was always going to be it. And of course, it would be at MetLife Stadium. Every Jets fan knew it when they bought their ticket to that game. The Dolphins did it in style, too. Malik Willis threw a 63-yard touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. RB Ollie Gordon ran all over the Jets for 103 yards. And the Miami defense got the big fourth-quarter stop when they needed it. Enjoy it, because things are almost certainly going to get worse — at least until they play the Jets again in Miami on Nov. 29. Next game: vs. Patriots (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Miami Dolphins have won a game for the first time since Week 17 of last season, snapping a six-game losing streak. The win is also the first for Jeff Hafley as a head coach. Super Bowl odds: +100000 (tied for last) The Titans don’t really deserve to move up as much as a few other teams deserved to move down. But give them this: They almost took down the upstart Browns. They even showed some signs of offensive life — or at least RB Tony Pollard (129 yards, 3 touchdowns) did. Their defense was a disaster and they let Deshaun Watson have his first 300-yard passing day in five years. They’re also 1-6, so yeah, they should be lower. Don’t worry. After they lose to the Bengals this Sunday, they’ll probably slide back down before heading into their bye week. Next game: @ Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: Averaging 168.4 passing yards per game through Week 7, Cam Ward is on pace for the fewest passing yards per game by a quarterback to start every game in the last 20 seasons. Super Bowl odds: +80000 (tied for 29th-best) Mike LaFleur’s young team really does play hard and manages to hang around much better teams — sometimes. But the Cardinals are still so flawed, and QB Jacoby Brissett isn’t very good, and they remain in the throes of a ridiculous schedule. They’ve got the Cowboys, Seahawks, Rams and Chiefs over the next four weeks, with all but the Rams on the road. Then maybe they can catch their breath and see if they can build a little momentum as they head into the offseason and the NFL draft. Next game: @ Cowboys (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Cardinals are 2-0 at SoFi Stadium this season and 0-5 everywhere else. Super Bowl odds: +12500 (21st-best) Dan Quinn still has his job, which is something of a minor upset as the Commanders return from their bye week. And if they didn’t make the change already, then he’ll probably hang on until the end of the season. The good news for them is the schedule isn’t particularly tough the rest of the way, at least until they get to their late-season road trip through Minnesota and Jacksonville. And the NFC East still stinks, so there are still opportunities to take the division if they don’t fall too far behind. But lower your expectations. They’re 1-4-1 for a reason, and it’s not a good one. Next game: vs. Eagles (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: Through Week 7, the Commanders have allowed 28.7 points per game, the second-worst mark in the NFL. Super Bowl odds: +10000 (tied for 20th-best) What in the world …? If someone told me that the Buccaneers were going to score 43 points and run for 258 yards, I would have asked, "You mean over the next two weeks, or three?" But they just grounded the Panthers' defense to a pulp in the most unexpected fashion imaginable. I’d say it helped that QB Baker Mayfield returned from his thumb injury, but he threw 11 passes and totaled just 64 yards. Give credit to Todd Bowles’ defense (two interceptions) and special teams (recovered muffed punt), I guess. And put Bucs-Panthers high on the list of most inexplicable outcomes of the year. Next game: vs. Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: In Sunday's second quarter, the Buccaneers became just the second team in NFL history with a pass TD, rushing TD, field goal, defensive TD and special teams TD/returned XP in a single quarter. They joined the Jets in Week 1, 2018 (3Q vs. DET). Super Bowl odds: +25000 (tied for 26th-best) For a second-year coach, Kellen Moore sure feels like he’s barely clinging to his job as his team tumbles into its bye week after losing to the Steelers in Paris. The Saints have just been such a disappointment, especially offensively, which was supposed to be Moore’s specialty. And injuries (to RB Travis Etienne and rookie WR Jordyn Tyson) are only a part of it. The Saints have now lost four of five, and their lone win was a hold-on-for-dear-life nailbiter against the Giants. And when they come out of the bye week, there are no breaks in the schedule until nearly Christmas. Things could get ugly, fast. Next game: BYE Stat To Know: The Saints have scored 48 points in the final two minutes of either half this season, the most in the NFL. Super Bowl odds: +25000 (tied for 26th-best) Let the fire sale begin! Everything must go — everything except for RB Jonathan Taylor, who remains the only good thing (and only watchable thing) about this team. Scoring 10 points and gaining just 218 yards against the powerful Vikings' defense isn’t embarrassing, but that’s their third straight loss, and they’re 2-5 now and it sure doesn’t seem like things are going to get better. They are heading toward an offseason of big changes. There’s no reason not to start making them now. Next game: @ Jaguars (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Vikings generated pressure on 60.9% of their blitzes against the Colts, recording four sacks on those plays. Indianapolis has now allowed 10 sacks over its last two games. Super Bowl odds: +20000 (25th-best) If the football gods had any mercy, they’d allow the Eagles to just punt on the rest of the season, because they’re getting kind of hard to look at. They are almost literally being held together by Band-Aids right now. Even Monday night, when they finally got RB Saquon Barkley back, he lasted nine plays before he added a back injury to his hamstring injury. It’s almost hard not to feel bad for them … almost. Actually, it’s probably not that hard for most NFL fans. They’ve been waiting a long time for the Eagles to fall apart like this. Next game: @ Commanders (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: After starting 2-0 this season, the Eagles have lost five straight games for the first time since Weeks 11-15, 2016. Super Bowl odds: +3500 (tied for 15th-best) Well, it looks like the Cowboys seem to have established themselves as the only team capable of chasing the Giants in the NFC East this year — though that’s not saying much. Their offense had little trouble with a decimated Eagles team, but man, that defense is still a mess. They’re lucky Saquon Barkley couldn’t stay in this game because he was threatening to run all over them. Not that doing that is all that difficult these days. All that money and they’re still giving up about 150 yards per game on the ground. That won’t get them very far. Next game: vs. Cardinals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: Despite the win, the Cowboys have allowed 20-plus points in 13 straight games, which is the longest active streak in the NFL by eight games and the longest streak in franchise history. Super Bowl odds: +3500 (tied for 15th-best) The Texans are undoubtedly a much-improved team over the past three weeks and can take comfort in that as they head into their bye week. But here’s their reality: It was always going to be tough, if not impossible, to rebound from an 0-4 start. The upstart Giants showed them how hard on Sunday by running all over them. The loss was bad enough, but giving up 420 yards to a Giants team starting its third QB this season? This Texans' defense just hasn’t been good enough and now the club is operating the rest of the season with almost no margin for error. Next game: BYE Stat To Know: The Texans’ defense has taken a major step back from last season, falling from second to 20th in points allowed per game and first to 18th in yards allowed per game. Super Bowl odds: +15000 (tied for 23rd-best) Remember when everyone was screaming that the Raiders belonged in the top 10? That was just four weeks and yet four losses ago. In fairness to them, those losses have come against the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams, and it’s pretty clear that all four of those teams are way out of the Raiders’ league. They do get a break against the Jets next Sunday. But after that, it’s the 49ers, Seahawks, Broncos and Browns. So yes, things definitely can still get worse. Which means it would be a bad time to switch to rookie QB Fernando Mendoza right now. Next game: @ Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: After starting the season 3-0, the Raiders have lost four straight games, allowing an NFL-worst 35.75 points per game over that span. Super Bowl odds: +6500 (tied for 18th-best) I want to be more excited that the Falcons knocked off the top team in these rankings, but it felt a little fluky to me.  They didn’t exactly light up the 49ers on offense and they didn’t really do that much to stop them on defense. What they got was four turnovers, which counts, but isn’t something that happens all the time. And one came when RB Christian McCaffrey was out. So … yay! Big win. But they’re still 3-4. They are playing a lot better over the past five weeks, though. That does count for something in a really bad division. Next game: @ Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Falcons' win over the 49ers on Sunday was their first home win of the season. Atlanta is now 1-3 at home in 2026. Super Bowl odds: +3200 (14th-best) The Packers were a couple of missed kicks away from beating the Lions and moving up in these rankings, but they just couldn’t make the big stop or the big offensive play when it mattered most. QB Jordan Love is still playing well, and he’s got RB Josh Jacobs back now to boost their rushing attack. And their defense is playing sneaky good too. So the Pack has it all … except that they’re 4-3 and that puts them in last place in their tough division. So they remain in the middle of the pack for now. Next game: vs. Panthers (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Packers lead the NFL with 20 drops this season, a 7.6% drop rate on 263 targets. Super Bowl odds: +8000 (20th-best) Now that was a big and impressive win against a Texans team that was starting to get on a little bit of a roll. The Giants got an impressive performance from new QB J.J. McCarthy, a big rebound game from RB Cam Skattebo and some timely stops from their battered defense. John Harbaugh’s staff even outcoached the Texans in the overtime win. The Giants are now the class of a trash division, heading into their bye week with a 4-2-1 record. As Harbaugh said after the game, the Giants have positioned themselves to be in this until the end. And with the Eagles and Commanders on deck after their break, they can create some real separation in the division. Next game: BYE Stat To Know: With their win today over the Texans on Sunday, the Giants would match their win total from the 2025 season when they finished 4-13. Last season, they did not get their 4th win until Week 18 in a 34-17 win over the Cowboys. Super Bowl odds: +5500 (17th-best) That’ll teach me to put the Panthers in the top 10. I didn’t feel good about it then, and I sure don’t feel good about it after their inexplicable, disgusting 43-13 loss to the Bucs. I mean, Tampa QB Baker Mayfield threw for 64 yards and the Panthers still gave up 43 points. The Bucs ran for 258 yards! A week ago, I thought QB Bryce Young was a dark horse MVP candidate, and then he goes out and barely completes half his passes, throws for 163 yards and gets picked off twice? That’s the thanks I get for my faith. Next game: @ Packers (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Panthers have now given up 40-plus points in two of their first three home games this season. Super Bowl odds: +1300 (tied for seventh-best) Paging Lamar Jackson, you are needed in Baltimore, stat. Jesse Minter tried to keep this team afloat while his star QB was out with an ankle injury, but it’s all come apart over the past two games, as the Ravens have scored a total of 20 points. Add that to their total defensive collapse in the second half against the Bengals on Sunday, not to mention their upcoming games against the Bills and the Jaguars, and they are standing on the edge of a dangerous cliff. Jackson is good enough to rescue them. But he better come back quickly. Next game: @ Bills (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Ravens surrendered 35 unanswered points to the Bengals after holding a double-digit lead, the first time that has happened in franchise history. Super Bowl odds: +15000 (tied for 23rd-best) All the Browns do is win. It’s never pretty. It’s never impressive. And sometimes it doesn’t even make sense. But somehow they’re 5-2 despite giving up 13 points more than they’ve scored. This past Sunday, they needed QB Deshaun Watson’s first 300-yard game in five years to beat a bad Titans team on a last-second field goal. Sometimes they win with defense. Whatever it takes. Rookie coach Todd Monken somehow keeps pushing the right buttons, and no coach in the league is doing more with less. Next game: @ Steelers (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The last time the Browns were in first place in the AFC North this late in a season was in Week 10 of the 2014 season. Super Bowl odds: +6500 (tied for 18th-best) It’s probably time I stopped underestimating the Steelers, who have won three straight now and have only been out of one game this season in the final minutes. They win ugly and their 42-year-old QB is a shell of his old self, but give Mike McCarthy credit. Pittsburgh finds ways to win. And the emergence of RB Jaylen Warren as a legitimate two-way weapon has been huge for a team that needs to carry Rodgers more than he can carry them. It would be a big boost for the Steelers if they can beat the Browns at home next Sunday and stay atop the AFC North heading into their bye. Next game: vs. Browns (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Steelers now have a 5-2 record. They have made the postseason in 10 of the previous 11 seasons when starting 5-2 or better. Super Bowl odds: +1050 (fourth-best) Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in. It wasn’t just because of their win over the Raiders on Sunday. It was the way they raced out to a 28-3 lead, with some outstanding passing by QB Matthew Stafford and a strong, two-pronged rushing attack from Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Their defense is a little shaky at times, but their offense still has the goods. If only they could put it together for more than one game at a time. Next game: vs. Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: With three passing touchdowns against the Raiders, Matthew Stafford is now the all-time leader in passing touchdowns in Rams franchise history. Super Bowl odds: +1900 (tied for 11th-best) The Patriots' narrow loss to the Bears on Thursday night might only be a bump in the road for a team that is clearly back on the right track. Drake Maye continues to play well. The Patriots still don’t run the ball very well, though, and that’s going to be a problem against a schedule that just doesn’t get much easier between now and the playoffs. They’re going to need to hold the ball to slow down some of the high-powered offenses they face. If they keep playing shootouts, it’s not going to end well for them. Next game: @ Dolphins (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: Rhamondre Stevenson’s 48-yard touchdown catch as time expired in the first half against the Bears was the Patriots’ longest touchdown to end a half since 2010. Over the past 20 years, 1,006 passes have been thrown in the final 10 seconds of a half from at least 40 yards from the end zone and traveled 10 or fewer air yards. Drake Maye’s throw to Stevenson was the only one to result in a touchdown. Super Bowl odds: +2100 (13th-best) Head coach Dan Campbell’s decision not to fire defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard looked a lot better than anyone expected when the Lions held the Packers to 17 points this past Sunday. It wasn’t a perfect effort, but they prevented the big plays when it mattered the most. And if they can actually get their defensive issues ironed out, they’ll be a strong Super Bowl contender. Their offense is good enough to beat anybody. They just need their defense to stop giving games away. Next game: vs. Vikings (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Lions' 4-2 start marks the first time in franchise history they’ve won at least four of their first six games in four consecutive seasons. Super Bowl odds: +1600 (ninth-best) They were shut out in the first half against Baltimore and had 59 total yards. That’s obscene for a team with as many weapons as they have. Then they scored 35 points and gained 299 yards in the second half, turning the game into a rout and reminding the world how dangerous they really are. I don’t even know what to say about Zac Taylor and this team anymore, though. The lack of consistency is absolutely maddening. But that second half showed why I keep ranking them this high. When they get going, they’re as good as any team in the league. Next game: vs. Titans (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: After trailing 13-0 at halftime, the Bengals scored 35 unanswered points in the second half against the Ravens. The 35 second-half points are tied for the second-most points scored in any second half in Bengals franchise history, and their most in a second half since October 29, 1989. Super Bowl odds: +1200 (sixth-best) The 34 points the Jaguars gave up to the Texans before their bye week looks like a real anomaly for a defense that has been mostly impressive this season. It’s certainly nothing to worry about considering their upcoming schedule. They face the Colts, Ravens, Giants and Titans (twice) over the next five weeks. The Ravens and Giants are tough, but each of those games is winnable. The Jaguars could be rising in these rankings fast. Next game: vs. Colts (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Jaguars have gone 23 straight games without allowing a 75-plus-yard rusher, tied for the third-longest streak since 1966. Only the 49ers have had longer streaks: 27 games from 2021-23 and 26 games from 1989-91. Super Bowl odds: +1100 (fifth-best) The Seahawks just beat the No. 2 team in these rankings, knocking the Chiefs from their unbeaten perch. But the truth is they’re kind of wedged here in this spot because of their unflattering record. The defending champs are 4-3 and there’s just no way around that, even though two of those losses were to the 49ers and Broncos, two of the toughest teams in the league. The Seahawks are clearly capable of greatness, especially on defense. If they beat the Bears next Monday, they’ll likely be back in the top 5. Next game: vs. Bears (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Seahawks held the Chiefs to their fewest points (three, tied), total yards (213), first downs (11), and red zone drives (zero) in any game started by Patrick Mahomes. Super Bowl odds: +1400 (eighth-best) A healthy Caleb Williams really does change everything for the Bears, and it honestly doesn’t look like he’s 100% back yet. Once he is, there may be no stopping the Bears — or at least the Bears’ offense. The defense has shown some holes the past few weeks against some pretty high-powered offenses. It’s probably still good enough for the Bears to make a deep run. They’re playing and acting like they can. But it’s clearly Ben Johnson’s offense that’s going to carry them to the end. Next game: @ Seahawks (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: D'Andre Swift is the first Bears running back with at least seven touchdowns through the team's first seven games of a season since Neal Anderson in 1990. Super Bowl odds: +580 (best) I admittedly feel a little bad about dropping the 49ers this far against a Falcons team that has been impressive at times over the past few weeks, especially since I still suspect this is the best team in football — you know, in those rare moments when they're mostly healthy. But there’s no avoiding the reality that they are incredibly banged up, and they added RB Christian McCaffrey to their injury list with a calf injury. Mostly, though, I’m concerned about this: They’ve turned the ball over eight times in the past three games, including four on Sunday. They’re too good to be that careless with the ball. Next game: BYE Stat To Know: Despite their first loss of the season to the Falcons, the 49ers lead the NFL in offensive play success rate (60.6%) and net passing yards per pass play (7.83). San Francisco also ranks second in yards per play (6.36), behind only the Bills (6.48), and third-down conversion rate (50%). Super Bowl odds: +1900 (tied for 11th-best) The Broncos may have scored 30 points against the Cardinals, but this team still has a Bo Nix problem. He scored on a 62-yard run of his own and threw a short pass that RB R.J. Harvey turned into a 52-yard score. But other than that, the Broncos quarterback was once again unimpressive and downright shaky. Maybe this is just the way it’s going to be. The Broncos are just going to keep finding a way to win. But Nix is probably going to have to get it together at some point — like, perhaps, next Sunday against the Chiefs. Next game: vs. Chiefs (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: With their win over the Cardinals on Sunday, the Broncos are 12-2 vs. NFC opponents since the start of the 2024 season. Super Bowl odds: +900 (third) The Chiefs were bound to stumble at some point, but that was one ugly way to do it. Patrick Mahomes managed just 165 passing yards and an interception against the tough Seattle defense. And RB Kenneth Walker III was held to just 36 rushing yards by his former team. Given how bad that was, it’s probably worth noting that the Chiefs haven’t exactly played a tough schedule. They are now set up for a very interesting rematch this week with the best team they beat: the Broncos. Next game: @ Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: During the 20-3 loss to the Seahawks, Kansas City never reached the red zone, the first time that has happened in a Patrick Mahomes NFL start, with Sunday being his 153rd career start, including the playoffs. Super Bowl odds: +1700 (10th-best) Well, the Vikings are the last of the undefeated teams, but the Week 6 bye didn’t exactly do anything for their quarterback problem. Against a suspect Colts defense, Kyler Murray threw for 150 yards, which is almost criminal considering he’s got wideouts Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on his side. Every week I am incredibly impressed with Brian Flores’ defense, but I wonder how long the Vikings can survive without a functioning offense. The Lions, Bills, Packers and 49ers are their next four opponents, so I suspect we’re about to find out. But for now, they get their highest ranking of the season. Sorry — the way they play offense, I just can’t put them at No. 1. Next game: @ Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: The Vikings extended their winning streak to 11 games, tying the 1986-87 Bears for the longest winning streak with at least four different starting quarterbacks since 1950. Super Bowl odds: +700 (second-best) The Bills are back on top, mostly by default as they come off their bye week. They’ll only stay here if they’ve spent their week off plugging their defensive holes. They’re going to be tested quickly, too, with a game against the Ravens, in what should be Lamar Jackson’s first game back from his ankle injury. The 1-2 punch of Josh Allen and James Cook is enough to give the Bills the temporary crown, though. It’ll be fascinating to see how this high-powered offense does in two weeks in Minnesota. But the real test comes on Thanksgiving when they face their nemesis, the Chiefs. Next game: vs. Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET) Stat To Know: Through Week 7, the Bills lead the NFL in scoring (32.8 points per game), yards per play (6.48), points per drive (3.28) and scoring drive percentage (60%).

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The Week 7 Plays That Stood Out: The 49ers' Woes To The Seahawks' Dominant Defense

Welcome to The Plays that Stood Out, where we take a deep dive into the moments that shaped the past week of NFL games and try to figure out what they could mean for the teams and players going forward. This week, we’re looking at how Mike Evans's injury derailed the 49ers offense in Atlanta, what's driving Houston's defensive woes, and how the Seahawks defense shut down Patrick Mahomes and Kenneth Walker. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan has worked minor miracles, keeping the offense afloat while the injury bug tears through his receiver room. At a certain point, though, you just run out of bodies. That’s how it looked Sunday in San Francisco’s first game without Mike Evans, a 29-20 loss in Atlanta that knocked the Niners back to the pack in the NFC. The absence was felt most on third down, where Evans has dominated San Francisco’s target share. Over the first six games, he moved the chains 11 times on third down; the rest of the team combined for 10. Against the Falcons, the 49ers had only two third-down receptions for first downs, both to George Kittle in the first quarter. On third down, Purdy finished 3-of-7 for 23 yards, a pick, and a passer rating of just 11.9. Even with Shanahan limiting his snap count, Evans has been a North Star for the passing game this season, and Purdy looked lost without him. A couple of plays really stood out. Take this third-and-17 play from the second quarter. That’s not a situation where you’d expect the offense to convert, but the 49ers just needed a solid gain to get back into field goal range. San Francisco comes out in a trips set, with Brandin Cooks, Evans’s stand-in, isolated on the back side. With the Falcons pushing their coverage to the three-receiver side, there's a crease in the coverage that Cooks’ deep in-breaker can exploit, but Purdy never looks his way and takes a checkdown that gains only two yards. Targeting Cooks would have been risky, but we’ve seen Purdy rip those deep in-breakers to Evans with blind faith throughout the first month and a half. If big No. 5 is running that route instead of Cooks, that ball is getting thrown. This next play came on fourth-and-10 late in the game. It’s another trips set with Cooks isolated on the backside. This time, Atlanta crowds the line of scrimmage and shows blitz. The Falcons sent a six-man pressure, but two defenders backed off into coverage, creating a 4-over-3 on the trips side. That left cornerback A.J. Terrell on an island with Cooks. If it’s Evans vs. Terrell, Purdy is taking that matchup every time. With Cooks out there, Purdy never even glances toward the single-receiver side and ends up taking a sack that snuffs out a potential Niners rally. There’s still an opportunity to complete the crosser, but the pressure gets to Purdy; he drops his eyes and runs himself down a cul-de-sac of pass rushers. This was the highest level of difficulty Purdy has faced all season. He came into the game with a league-low 71 dropbacks on plays with a pass probability greater than 75%, per Next Gen Stats. In Atlanta, he took 25 such dropbacks – and he did it without his star wideout. The takeaway: Shanahan tried his best to feature the other 49ers stars who are healthy enough to play. Christian McCaffrey got touches on seven of his first eight snaps and ended up in the blue medical tent with a leg injury. Kittle was targeted a season-high 10 times, but he’s not the explosive play machine he once was, so those targets produced just 88 yards. Like Evans, McCaffrey and Kittle are older and have extensive injury histories, so Shanahan can’t just spam touches for them without increasing their injury risk. Until the 49ers are fully healthy – or at least get Evans back on the field – Shanahan will have to maintain this delicate balance, and the offense will remain limited. All right, I’ve seen enough of this Houston team to give up any hope of it making a deep postseason run. That hope rested mostly on the defense turning things around, reclaiming its title as one of the league’s best units, and pairing it with an offense that was just good enough to do its part in January. After watching J.J. McCarthy and Cam Skattebo put up career days on Demeco Ryans’ defense, I’m selling all of my stock. I think general manager Nick Caserio summed up the defensive issues best on Monday morning. If you watched the final two overtime plays – Skattebo’s 42-yard stroll through the Texans' front and Devin Singletary’s 30-yard game-winner – you wouldn’t need Caserio to tell you Houston has a tackling problem, especially in the secondary. On both plays, safety Calen Bullock was one-on-one with the ball carrier. On Skattebo’s run, he took a bad angle, allowing the plodding back to get past him. Against Singletary, a quick stutter step left him grasping for air. The Texans secondary combined for 10 missed tackles against the Giants, bringing their season total up to 43. Only Denver’s secondary has whiffed on more tackles this season, per Pro Football Focus. The safeties, Bullock and Reed Blankenship, have been the main culprits, with seven and eight missed tackles, respectively, but the whole unit has played a role. Cornerback Kamari Lassiter has missed six tackles, nickelback Jalen Pitre has missed five, and Derek Stingley and M.J. Stewart have missed four apiece. Football is a beautifully complex sport, but sometimes the results are easy to explain. Houston’s defense has regressed because the secondary isn’t winning its one-on-one battles. The takeaway: It’s not just the tackling, either. Texans defensive backs have been getting dunked on at the catch point all season. Only the Jaguars have given up more yards on tight-window throws and only three teams have surrendered more expected points added, per Next Gen Stats. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on those contested throws. Last season, that number was a league-leading 2.0 yards per attempt. That’s a remarkable difference. Issues at the catch point and poor tackling in the secondary have spiked opponents’ explosive play rate, which is driving the defensive regression. Ryans said Monday that he believes in Houston’s scheme, and I’m inclined to agree. The players are in position to make stops; they just haven’t. Until this highly paid secondary starts playing up to its price tag, I’m fading the Texans. If you forgot – or were distracted by the turbulent offense – Sunday’s comprehensive beatdown of the Chiefs was a reminder that Seattle is still home to the NFL’s best defense. The statistical nuggets coming out of the game are astonishing. Kansas City couldn’t create any explosive plays. It couldn’t produce in general. Just gaining a first down felt like a chore. The Seahawks didn’t just make Patrick Mahomes look mortal. They did it while also neutralizing Kenneth Walker, who came into the game leading the world in just about every meaningful run metric. The star running back managed just 36 yards on 14 carries. It was the first time he was held without an explosive run and the first time he was held to a success rate lower than 40%, per Next Gen Stats. And Seattle did it without loading the box with run defenders. Seahawks coach/defensive play-caller Mike MacDonald could keep calling his two-high safety looks and enjoy a numbers advantage in the passing game. Pick pretty much any of Mahomes’ 33 passes and pause when he hits the back of his drop. And almost every time, you’ll see Seattle with a plus-one advantage in coverage on both sides of the field. Mahomes’ interception came on a play where the Seahawks are caught in a run blitz against play-action. That’s typically an advantage for the offense, but Seattle gets four defenders over three receivers to the playside while Mahomes is chased by Nick Emmanwori and his 4.3 speed. Seattle can play like that against the pass because they can do this against the run. Here, Kansas City comes out with three tight ends, and only one receiver split wide. The Seahawks match it with their nickel defense and keep both safeties deep, leaving a run gap open. But Seattle closes them with a strong scheme and even better talent. Derrick Hall and Leonard Williams cave in the strong side, creating a wall that boxes Walker in. Jarran Reed occupies a double team, and DeMarcus Lawrence wins inside and closes off the cutback lane. Both Seahawks linebackers remain unblocked, allowing them to fill any open gaps. Seattle’s defensive alignment made it hard for Kansas City’s blockers to build double teams, and the defensive talent on the line made it hard to win those matchups, leaving Walker nowhere to go. That’s how you overcome a disadvantage in the box. This snapshot of the Next Gen Stats tracking dots clearly illustrates how the Seahawks' run defense functions. You can see the vertical penetration to the play side, with the backside defenders working horizontally to prevent cutback lanes from forming. The takeaway: It’s like MacDonald is playing a rigged game of rock-paper-scissors, where scissors don’t beat paper, so they can throw it with impunity. In this case, paper is their two-high coverages. Seattle can stay in their shell coverages without worrying about getting gashed on the ground. And it’s not like the Seahawks are just surviving against the run. They own the league’s dominant run defenses, which makes the suffocating coverage possible. 1. Packers defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon has tormented opposing offenses with his exotic blitzes on third down, so credit to the Lions coaching staff for having an answer on Sunday. Sometimes, the solution to a complex schematic problem is as simple as putting the ball in your best player’s hands. For Detroit, that’s Jahmyr Gibbs, who moved the chains on two key third-down runs, with both coming on the same run play against the same pressure look from Green Bay. The first one came on third-and-5 on the opening drive. With the Packers showing blitz, Detroit ran a crack toss with Amon-Ra St. Brown motioning across the formation and the play-side offensive tackle pulling outside, leading the way for Gibbs on third-and-5. That extended the Lions' first of two touchdown drives on Sunday. The second play essentially iced the game for Detroit. Facing third-and-7 and a similar pressure look from Green Bay, the Lions tossed it to Gibbs with St. Brown and Penei Sewell clearing out a path to a first down. Gibbs wisely went down, letting Detroit bleed the clock before a chip-shot field goal to win. 2. The Rams will likely be in the market for another receiver with Davante Adams out for a couple of months, but Sean McVay has to be happy with the blocking effort he got out of his receiving corps on Sunday in the 35-21 win over Las Vegas. Konata Mumpfield's effort on Kyren Williams’ 17-yard touchdown run really stood out. Mumpfield wards off a cornerback just long enough before landing the key block on the safety, creating a downfield seal all on his own. Los Angeles went back to basics on Sunday, running multi-tight-end sets and mashing the Raiders on the ground. That ground-and-pound strategy only works if you’re getting explosive runs, and those are much easier to come by when receivers are willing to block. 3. It’s been a month since I begged the NFL teams to run more lateral plays, and it appears they’re listening. Per Pro Football Focus, offenses have run seven since Week 3, including three in Week 7, and the success rate remains encouraging. Four of those seven plays – all on third- or fourth-and-10-plus – have gone for first downs. As these designed laterals continue to dig offenses out of deep situational holes, I expect to see even more. The NFL never fails to live up to its reputation as a copycat league.

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Big Bets Report: $5, 8-leg Parlay Narrowly Misses Million-Dollar Payday

Sunday was National Tight Ends Day, and don’t think the public betting masses didn’t know it. Bettors were all over tight ends in player props for NFL Week 7 odds, particularly in touchdown scorer markets. No surprise, the 49ers’ George Kittle was the most popular of all. But in a missed-it-by-that-much wager for the ages, a $5 parlay fell one leg short of $1 million by banking on a couple of Kittle touchdowns. More on that close call, a battle of major wagers on Patriots vs. Bears, a $10K-to-$422K conversion and a parlay on which a couple tight ends indeed delivered. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Ahead of Sunday’s games, a Hard Rock Bet customer put all of five bucks on an eight-leg parlay of anytime touchdown scorers. In honor of National Tight Ends Day, four legs were on players at that position: The other four legs: Add up all those numbers with a parlay calculator, and you’ve got eye-popping odds that look more like a Social Security number: +21081593. In slightly easier-to-digest terms, that’s about 210,816/1. Making it more interesting, all those players were competing at the same time, in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff window. And seven legs got there for the bettor, including Judkins scoring two TDs — which he actually did before halftime of Cleveland’s 27-24 win over Tennessee. But while Kittle had a solid day, with eight catches for 88 yards, he didn’t find the end zone at all. If Kittle had struck paydirt twice, then the bettor would’ve turned that $5 into a whopping $1.054 million. If the bettor just excluded the Kittle leg, the ticket still would’ve profited about $140,000. Which is a fine day, to be sure. So close. The Patriots-Bears Thursday night game drew a trio of major wagers at three sportsbooks. Station Sports in Las Vegas took the biggest of those bets, a hefty $600,000 Patriots +3.5 (-140). On the flip side, Caesars Sports had a Michigan customer put $175,000 on Bears -3 (-115). And at DraftKings Sports, a bettor put $50,000 on Bears' moneyline -155, simply needing Chicago to win, regardless of the final margin. The Bears held on for a 30-24 win and cover. So the Caesars bettor banked $152,174 (total payout $327,174), and the DK customer won $32,258 (total payout $82,258). But the Station high-roller made a massive six-figure donation to the house. Ouch. At Fanatics Sportsbook, a couple of tight ends helped get half the job done and two wideouts did the other half for a customer. The bettor put $200 on a four-leg anytime TD scorer parlay, with tight ends Trey McBride and Tucker Kraft joined by wide receivers Drake London and Marvin Harrison Jr. London and Harrison delivered first for the Falcons and Texans, respectively, in Sunday’s early window of games. In the late window, McBride and Kraft found the end zone for the Cardinals and Packers, respectively. The bettor also utilized a 20% boost promotion, hiking the odds from +4075 to +4890 — just shy of 49/1. So that $200 turned a profit of $9,780 (total payout $9,980). Not a bad day’s work. For something a little more relatable: A Hard Rock Bet customer turned a mere two George Washingtons into $5,071.50 on a three-leg parlay of first touchdown scorers. Two of those legs were longer shots: Dolphins wideout Caleb Douglas and Giants running back Tyrone Tracy Jr. were both +2000. The third leg was Colts running back Jonathan Taylor +475. All three were the first players into the end zone in their respective games. At healthy odds of +253475 — almost 2535/1 — the bettor's two bucks turned into $5,071. And how about something completely unrelatable: Putting $10,000 on an eight-leg NFL parlay. That’s not advisable in pretty much any situation. As the cliché goes: Parlays are a bookmaker’s best friend. But in this instance, a Hard Rock customer got to the pay window on a combination of plays on point spreads, moneylines and totals, along with one player prop: Giants wideout Malik Nabers over 68.5 receiving yards. Nabers finished with 111 yards and the other seven legs hit, as well. On Sunday night, Seahawks' moneyline clinched it, with Seattle beating the Chiefs 20-3. At odds just beyond +4120, the bettor’s $10K turned into $422,030. During football season, this space is normally reserved for notable wagers on the NFL and college football. But when someone knocks out a nearly $1.5 million win on a two-leg parlay, exceptions must be made. A high-roller at Fanatics Sportsbook put $18,000 on an NHL player-prop parlay: Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl +575 to have two or more goals vs. the Wild, and Hurricanes forward Nikolaj Ehlers +1100 to have two or more goals vs. the Canucks. Run those numbers through the parlay calculator, and you get odds of +8000. Both players delivered, and the bettor profited $1.440 million, for a total payout of $1.458 million. It’s not all about making big bets or cashing out huge on a 10-leg parlay. Which, to be clear, is rare. Sometimes, it’s about putting 10 bucks on a single straight bet, backing a long shot or semi-long shot, and getting a solid return on investment. For example, at DraftKings Sportsbook, taking Rams tight end Davis Allen to score the game’s first TD at +3500. Or better still, Allen to score two or more TDs at +8000. A tenner on the first would’ve netted $350. On the second, your wallet would be stuffed with $800. Caesars Sports has an interesting offering each week on the 1 p.m. ET Sunday NFL games: First player to score a touchdown, based on elapsed game time. If you had Zay Flowers +2800 in Week 7, step up and claim your prize. The Ravens' wideout scored just 84 seconds into Sunday’s game vs. the Bengals. A $10 wager on that would’ve blossomed into $280 profit, in short order. As noted above, Station Sports took a $600,000 play on the Patriots to cover vs. the Bears. In fact, as has been the case much of the season, Station is seeing quite a few six-figure NFL bets. Sportsbooks don’t reveal who’s making the bets. But if you buy into social media rumors, most — perhaps all — of these Station plays are coming from the same customer. If so, that customer had a very up-and-down last few days. Along with that Patriots setback, Station took the following major wagers: Other notable major wagers from the weekend: Always bear in mind that these high-rolling customers have the disposable income to not only make big bets, but absorb what for us are jaw-dropping losses. Keep your bet size and expectations reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

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