QB Notebook: Aaron Rodgers Failing Beyond Physical Ability; Relax, Baker Mayfield

Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we’ll look at how Aaron Rodgers is holding the Steelers' offense back, check in with Drew Lock, and ask Baker Mayfield to chill out. Let’s talk quarterbacks. The Steelers' offense has been flat-out unwatchable to start the season. Even with the aid of a Cooper Rush turnover spree in Week 1, Pittsburgh ranks 31st in points per drive, expected points added (EPA) per play, and success rate. The offense is generating explosive plays at the fourth-lowest rate, and only the Packers have been worse on third down. Through two weeks, nothing is working, and Aaron Rodgers is pointing fingers at himself … kind of. "We need to be better, and it starts with me," the Steelers quarterback said after Sunday’s three-point performance in a loss to New England. But just when you thought he was about to take some accountability, he kept talking: "It starts with me, at like, making sure Mike [McCarthy] knows what’s working and not working, so we can call stuff that has a better chance." That’s right, Rodgers believes the solution to Pittsburgh's offensive woes is more play-calling input from himself. In the second half of the Patriots game, we got a little preview of what the Steelers' offense could look like with Rodgers running the show, and it looked a lot like the offenses we’ve seen him lead in Pittsburgh and New York over the past few years. Rodgers lined up in the gun and got rid of the ball as quickly as possible. The main aim of his preferred offensive approach seems to be reducing the hits he takes. Rodgers doesn’t want to hold the football any longer than he has to, and the explosive plays McCarthy is so keen on creating require it. And that’s the primary issue with the Steelers offense: Rodgers gets worse the longer he holds the ball. That’s what separates this version of Rodgers from the back-to-back MVP we saw in Green Bay at the start of the decade. On dropbacks that last more than 2.5 seconds, Rodgers is averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt through two weeks, per Next Gen Stats. That’s down from 6.8 in 2025, continuing a downward trend dating back to 2021. Rodgers wants to play a point-guard-like role but is no longer interested in creating. That, of course, would require him to hold onto the ball longer and expose himself to more hits. And maybe that’s for the best. Rodgers still has some talent left in his right arm. He’ll show it off a few times a week, but he can no longer hit tough throws with regularity, which was a hallmark of his game when he was playing at an MVP level. He has a sub-40 passer rating on throws with a completion probability under 50%, averaging just 2.9 yards per attempt, per Next Gen Stats. Back in 2021, Rodgers had a passer rating over 90 on such throws, averaging 7.9 yards per attempt. Once again, we’ve seen a steady decline in his production on those plays over the past few years. Rodgers seems to think he can make up for his waning physical abilities with his advanced football IQ by getting the Steelers into good plays based on what he’s seeing pre-snap. Rodgers likes to boast about his pre-snap acumen, but plenty of examples show him making poor decisions at the line. Take this play from Sunday’s loss. McCarthy has a toss play to the running back called, and the Steelers have the right blocking matchups to make it work. But Rodgers sees Pats cornerback Christian Gonzalez playing off-coverage on DK Metcalf and decides that flipping a quick pass out to him is the better option. It was not … Had Rodgers just stuck with the original play, the Steelers might’ve picked up a nice chunk that kept them ahead of the chains. Instead, they ended up in a second-and-long with a quarterback uninterested in pushing the ball downfield. You can probably guess how that series ended. I’m not sure if there are any remedies for what ails the offense, but leaning on Rodgers even more than they already have won’t fix anything. Like a Rodgers dropback, the sooner this era of Steelers football ends, the better. After three rough halves to start the season, the Broncos' offense flipped a switch in their second-half comeback over the Jaguars. Whether it was first-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb or Sean Payton acting as a shadow play-caller, someone on Denver’s staff came up with the idea to get Bo Nix on the move, and it seemed to unlock something in the third-year passer. Nix connected on 4 of 5 passes made on the run and averaged over 11 yards per attempt in the second half, per Next Gen Stats. That doesn’t include this 49-yard dime to Jaylen Waddle, which led to Denver’s first points in the second quarter. Nix isn't known for his downfield passing prowess, but when he gets outside of the pocket, that part of his game seems to open up. Nix has really struggled when throwing to the intermediate parts of the field, which is awfully important for sustaining an effective NFL passing game. He’s completed just 46% of his attempts into that range when throwing from the pocket, per Next Gen Stats. But put Nix on the move, and his completion percentage on intermediate throws jumps to 55%. He’s one of the rare quarterbacks who’s more accurate when throwing on the run. That’s more of an indictment of Nix’s ability to throw from a stationary position than anything else. His production when throwing on the run is around league average. It’s less of a superpower and more of a crutch — a crutch the Broncos coaching staff has leaned on heavily. Since he entered the league in 2024, Nix has thrown for more passing yards on the run than any quarterback in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. I’m not sure Payton and Webb can squeeze any more juice out of Nix’s mobility than they already have. And calling designed rollouts can limit the passing game, as it usually cuts the field in half for the offense. Nix must improve his play from the pocket if this offense is going to take the next step and get the most out of a stacked supporting cast. The 26-year-old did offer some glimmers of hope against Jacksonville. This was a throw Nix has rarely made with confidence throughout his career. And there were a few other examples of Nix ripping a throw into a tight zone window with confidence and anticipation in Sunday’s game. That’s a good sign. As Nix gets more comfortable targeting the middle of the field, we should see even more of those flashes; but until he cleans up his footwork in the pocket, accuracy will be a limiting factor, and Denver’s coaching staff will have to find more creative ways to get him moving. The ink is barely dry on the three-year, $165 million extension Baker Mayfield signed with the Buccaneers right before the season, but I’m wondering if the last two weeks have the front office already looking for an off-ramp. General manager Jason Licht and head coach Todd Bowles said a lot of nice things about their quarterback throughout the somewhat contentious negotiations, but it wasn’t hard to read between the lines to figure out where their concerns lay. "The main thing is not turning the ball over and sometimes checking it down," Bowles said in the offseason. "Understanding when he gets out of the pocket — he makes some great scrambles — but understanding how to get down and putting himself out of harm’s way." We’re two games into Mayfield’s new contract, and not much has changed. He’s tied for the league lead in "turnover-worthy plays" (per Pro Football Focus), and we’ve already seen a handful of daring scrambles that make it look like Mayfield has been possessed by the spirit of Cam Skattebo. This play against the Bengals was a two-for, with Mayfield taking an unnecessary hit and coughing up the ball in the red zone. Hopefully, someone on the Bucs coaching staff talked with Mayfield after this play in the loss to the Browns, where he decided that taking a defender head-on was a better option than running out of bounds or throwing the ball away. Look, when Mayfield was on heavily discounted deals, those displays of toughness were admirable. Now that he’s making top-of-the-league money, they’re unacceptable. For better or worse, the Bucs are locked into the Baker Mayfield business for the next three seasons. In 2029, the team can get out of the deal without taking on a massive cap penalty. If his judgment doesn’t improve—whether it’s protecting himself or the football—that will feel like a long wait. I’ll give Drew Lock this: he’s a lot of fun to watch. Watch him whip a throw over the middle of the field, and you can see why the Broncos once viewed him as their quarterback of the future. If he can keep this up while Sam Darnold works his way back from a hip injury, another team may view him in the same light next offseason. My money’s on the Falcons. I’m still not a believer after Sunday’s impressive showing. Seattle’s offensive line kept him in clean pockets all day, and we still saw glimpses of the inaccuracy and shoddy footwork that sabotaged Lock’s stint in Denver. There are far better ways to spend $30 million. You have to watch this one from the end zone angle to fully appreciate the play Joe Burrow makes here. With pressure bearing down on him, Burrow throws a no-look pass that dekes the defender in coverage and opens up the window to hit Tee Higgins and move the chains on third down. The play requires pocket presence, accuracy, anticipation, and a little bit of creativity. Look, I’m not the biggest fan of Michael Penix Jr.’s game, but I am thankful that he’s returning for Week 3. I couldn’t do another week of Cooper Rush, who’s still making rookie mistakes in his 10th year. This pick was a high school-level blunder. Devin Lloyd barely moves on the play, and Rush throws it directly to him. To make matters worse, Rush badly whiffs on a tackle and nearly takes his teammate out in the process.

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Herd Hierarchy: Are The Bills The NFL's Best Team, Or Do Seahawks Remain No. 1?

The Los Angeles Rams are back, and quarterback injuries were just a couple of the storylines from an interesting Week 2 of the NFL. Colin Cowherd revealed his Herd Hierarchy rankings, which featured a new team at No. 1 and five new teams in the rankings after their dominant wins last weekend. Here are Cowherd's Week 2 Herd Hierarchy rankings: Cowherd’s thoughts: I’m going to put the Lions at 10 because of their firepower. They’ve scored 30-plus in both games and allowed 30-plus in both games. Outside of Aidan Hutchinson, not sure who else I trust on the defensive side. But Jared Goff is the only quarterback this season with six touchdowns and no picks. They rank second offensively in big plays, but last in big plays allowed. I like the GM, I like the coach, I like the offensive firepower. Once again, it feels like an annual thing; they’re banged up defensively. I don’t trust them holding leads. But it’s an offensive league; they’ve got a ton of firepower. Cowherd's thoughts: Is anybody paying attention to the Saints? They outscored the Ravens in Baltimore 15-0 in the fourth. Tyler Shough, they found their guy. He’s sneaky athletic. He’s got size. He’s throwing the ball to the right guy, Chris Olave. In the fourth quarter in overtime this year, two road games, 78% completion. They have a real roster. We picked them to win their division. They looked very good in the second half of both Detroit and Baltimore. They dominated the Ravens like people don’t do in Baltimore. Cowherd's thoughts: Drake Maye’s been uneven. A.J. Brown is unavailable. But I’ll put the Patriots, who are 14-2 in their last 16 games. They win, and when Christian Gonzalez is healthy, it is an excellent defense. They’re one of seven teams to allow 300 or fewer yards in the first two weeks. They held the Steelers to three and a half yards per play. I still think their O-line is mid. We’ll keep our fingers crossed on how A.J. Brown works, but coaching, culture, defensive front, elite secondary — I got the Patriots at eight. Cowherd's thoughts: We all know the Rams are better than seven, but they don’t have Myles Garrett; they don’t have Puka Nacua. They’re not, I don’t think, dialed in yet. [Matthew] Stafford got lucky a few times last night. Davante Adams made some insane catches, but it’s a little Noah’s Ark. Three tight ends I like, two defensive interior linemen, a couple of rush edges, two good running backs. Stafford is not going to give you a lot of wiggle. They’re, right now, not entirely polished, not playing clean football. There’s fumbles. There’s interceptions. There’s penalties. They’re better than seven, but that’s where I’ll put them now. Cowherd's thoughts: I’ll say the same about the Eagles; they’re in a three-and-out factory. In September the last five years, they’re 14-2. Nobody wins ugly like Philadelphia. I will say, [Dontayvion] Wicks and DeVonta Smith are a real tandem. Makai Lemon hasn’t done anything as a rookie wide receiver; they haven’t needed him. The offense isn’t clicking. They’re 14th in scoring, 14th in yards per play. I can like Jalen Hurts simultaneously and think sometimes he holds them back." Cowherd's thoughts: Keep your eye on Cincinnati. The Bengals spent money on defense. It was the worst run defense in the league. All I'm going to say is, it's not anymore. They look different. They are forcing turnovers. They have a very physical defensive front. They didn't even play well against the Texans, and dominated them. They held the running backs to 18 rush yards on 14 carries. They have solved a big dilemma. I think they were going to be viewed as one of the most improved teams in the NFL, and so far, they are. Cowherd's thoughts: They don't have Josh Simmons; that does worry me. But have you noticed that Travis Kelce looks 26 years old? It's amazing when you have a legitimate running game, you can't cheat against Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Suddenly, Rice looks like a great deep threat. And Travis Kelce is wide open. And that's what happens when you have a run game and safeties can't cheat and linebackers can't cheat. [Patrick] Mahomes looks spry. If you look at yards per play allowed, it's Andy's best defense. Is it? I don't know. But they're only allowing four and a half yards per play. Cowherd's thoughts: It's hard to judge the Niners. All the old guys are healthy, and Miami's going to help everyone's data look great. But Brock Purdy, playing with leads, and he's barely been hit, and he hasn't been sacked. So it's kind of hard to say. It's like a dominant college team; Brock Purdy hasn't even been rushed. But I will say this: they've had 11 incomplete passes and 10 scoring drives. So they're accomplishing what they should. And we know when healthy: [Christian] McCaffrey, [George] Kittle, Trent [Williams], Fred Warner, these are all Hall of Famers, and [Nick] Bosa. We know their top end's great. But the question is, will they be available on Thanksgiving? Cowherd's thoughts: Offensive coach with Josh Allen has really been pivotal. Dalton Kincaid leads all tight ends in receiving yards. The defense looks good enough; they've spent a lot of draft capital on this defense. But I think Josh Allen, I think most quarterbacks are all better with an offensive head coach. Doesn't mean you can't win Super Bowls, like Seattle with a defensive head coach. They're facing the Los Angeles Chargers this week; good luck to Los Angeles there. Cowherd's thoughts: Only Seattle can go to a backup [quarterback] — a backup most of us don't love — and throttle teams. I don't know what their weakness is. They're even good on special teams. They lose a running back, but they still have a great run game. They lose a top corner, two of them, and still have good corners. [Jaxon Smith-Njigba] is 40% of their offense; you worry a little about that. They're very JSN-dependent. He has four of their five total touchdowns this year. But [Sam] Darnold gives them an athletic lingo they don't currently have with Drew Lock. They're allowing 3.8 yards per play. They are the fastest defense, to me, sideline to sideline in the NFL.

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Tom Brady Explains How Eliminating Negative Plays Elevated Josh Allen’s Game

Through two games, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is playing like a guy ready to add another MVP trophy to his mantle. After leading the Bills to a 2-0 start, Allen is off to one of the strongest statistical openings of his career. He’s thrown for 582 yards and five touchdowns while adding another 92 yards and four scores on the ground. These impressive numbers also come without Allen throwing an interception. Speaking with Colin Cowherd on "The Herd," seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady broke down Allen’s development. He immediately focused on Allen’s development under Brian Daboll before he left to take the New York Giants head coaching job. "I thought there was a lot of development that took place when he had Brian Daboll as his [offensive] coordinator," Brady said. "I think he learned the system. He’s got an awesome ability to improvise and we’ve seen that for a long time." Beyond Allen’s physical traits, Brady pointed out that his ability to avoid negative plays has been his biggest area of growth. Early in his career, turnovers were a frequent criticism, but Allen has turned his play on the field into a far more disciplined decision-maker. "He’s got the big arm, the legs and can kind of run the big plays," Brady said. "It’s always been ‘how can he eliminate the negative plays?’ The bonehead fumbles, the bonehead sacks and those plays are the ones that put your team behind the eight ball." As a Hall of Fame passer renowned for protecting the football, Brady recognized the same growth in Allen. In fact, Brady pointed to eliminating negative plays as the single biggest sign of Allen’s development and maturity. "Sometimes the best play is throwing the ball away," Brady said. "Playing for a second down and staying in those situations. Eliminating the negative plays. I think for him, that’s where I’ve seen his game mature the most."

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Upon Further Review: Bengals Have Flipped The Script With Upgraded Defense

All the Cincinnati Bengals needed was an average defense to become the team to beat in the AFC North. The Bengals’ loaded offense hasn’t been an issue, as long as quarterback Joe Burrow is healthy. After two weeks, that is the case this season. Defensive coordinator Al Golden has his unit playing stellar football, forcing four turnovers in a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before holding the Houston Texans to just six points in Week 2. Cincinnati is 2-0 and sits pretty atop the AFC North, a position it might just keep the entire season. The Ravens and Steelers lost this past Sunday. The first key matchup comes in Week 7, when the Bengals travel to Baltimore. It has only been two games, yes, but the most impressive turnaround in the NFL has to be Cincinnati's defense, which was one of the NFL's absolute worst last season and has been a huge part of the Bengals. "They're all talented, they're all accomplished, but they're great human beings and they're leaders," Golden told me over the phone on Monday about the influx of talent the Bengals' defense took in during the offseason. "They bring great energy and passion into the building every day, and they're fun to work with. They make it fun to come to work every day and each of them is making a difference for us." The headline acquisition: defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence, acquired from the New York Giants for the No. 10 overall pick in this year's draft. The 28-year-old veteran was tasked with taking the league's worst run defense and changing its identity. So far, he has done that. Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving was held to 45 rushing yards in Week 1, and then David Montgomery had just 10 for the Texans this past week. You can point to the fact that Lawrence only has three tackles, one for a loss, with no sacks so far this season, but he's tied for third in pressures among defensive tackles (eight, per Pro Football Focus). Golden said Lawrence has been a game-changer for the Bengals. "He's been impactful," Golden said. "I know there's some discourse out there about what the stat line looks like as it relates to him, but in terms of impacting the game in the middle of the defense, pushing the pocket inside for us, it's been dramatic. It's been the big difference. The greatest compliment he can get is how much better he makes everyone around him." Defense had held Cincinnati back in recent years, understandably seen as a major reason Burrow and wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase missed the playoffs three years in a row after making the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AFC Championship Game in 2022. Lawrence was added, as was defensive tackle Jonathan Allen, edge Boye Mafe and safety Bryan Cook. Those veterans were brought in to complement second-year linebackers Demetrius Knight and Barret Carter. The Bengals prioritized high-leverage areas of the field and now rank in the top 10 in scoring defense and are a top-five unit in the red zone. "You spent 80% of your time on the 20% that can make the biggest difference," Golden said. "You're talking about turnover margin, one of the biggest factors in playing good defense, winning third down, critically important and being a really good red-zone defense. It's about scoring defense. We've put an emphasis on it, and when Dex and Jonathan Allen are the first two out there for ball disruption drills in 95-degree heat, that says all you need to know." The Bengals are poised to potentially build upon their two wins to start the season. Two of their next three games are against teams with bottom-five offenses this season. First, it’s a trip to Pittsburgh, then a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars before heading to Miami to face the Dolphins on the road in Week 5. That trip to face the Steelers will be a good chance to show just how far the Bengals — and their defense — have come, having lost 34-12 in Pittsburgh last season. Did you have Bryce Young second in the NFL in passing yards (648) and tied for the league lead with six touchdown passes? It's the best consecutive-game total of his four-year career in both categories, and if his Week 1 success was obscured by his team giving up 59 points to the Chicago Bears, there was no such problem in a 34-3 victory over the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. Veteran tight end Darren Waller, who caught two touchdowns from Young on Sunday, isn't surprised at all. "It's just an extension of what I've seen from him since the moment I got here," Waller told me over the phone. "Being super-intentional with everything he's doing at practice and making a lot of great plays." In one game, Waller had as many touchdowns as any Panthers tight end has had in either of the last two full seasons. After a year of retirement, the now 34-year-old returned to the NFL last year with six touchdown catches in Miami. And Waller's return to play this season was pretty last-minute, too. He signed with the Panthers two weeks into training camp, joining a team looking to repeat as NFC South champions. Waller remembers the day Carolina offered him a contract in August — it was the nine-year anniversary of his sobriety — and is eager to see how the Panthers can sustain their early success. "It's been really fun these first two games, being so productive but also having a lot of ways we can get better as well," he said. Much of Sunday's headlines from the Cleveland Browns' surprising upset of the Bucs centered on quarterback Deshaun Watson rallying Cleveland to 17 points in the second half for a 23-19 rain-delayed win. But as Cleveland's defensive front seeks a new identity without Myles Garrett, one emerging player to watch is second-year pro Mason Graham, the fifth overall pick in the 2025 draft. Graham had a half-sack as a rookie, but he's had a sack in each of his first two games this season, joining end Jared Verse as the pieces the Browns will build around up front. "I think players that are as diligent as Mason is, and love football, [are] going to continue to get better," coach Todd Monken said. "He’s still a young player, and you can see that with our interior guys. When they slide away from you and you get one-on-one, it’s the ultimate sign of disrespect. I mean, you’ve got to win your one-on-one matchups. We’re built for our explosive interior players to be able to win those matchups. And we won more of them than we did the week before." All of the 49ers' top five players in receptions after two games are age 30 and older, which sets up a battle against injury all season long, but gives quarterback Brock Purdy an extremely reliable and sure-handed group of targets in the passing game. Purdy never completed 70% of his passes in any of his first four seasons in San Francisco. Still, with more high-percentage passes to running back Christian McCaffrey and tight end George Kittle, he's completing a league-best 80.4% of his throws this season. Literally no player in the 49ers' offense has a catch rate lower than 67%. Keep receivers Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel healthy, which is no easy task, and Purdy could challenge the NFL season record for completion percentage, set by Drew Brees in 2018 at 74.4%.

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Big Bets Report: Bettor Loses $1 Million After Bills Bury Lions

Between NFL Week 2 odds and college football Week 3 odds, there was no shortage of high-rollers making major wagers. There were five- and six-figure bets aplenty, and even an eye-watering seven-figure play. But on a Sunday of upsets in the NFL, arguably the best bet of the weekend was a relatively modest three-figure underdog parlay that netted a healthy five-figure profit. More on that wager, a million-dollar loser and a Thursday night payday for the public betting masses, as we recap the weekend that was in football betting. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. The public was all over the Ravens on Sunday. Ditto for the Buccaneers, and to a slightly lesser extent, the Bears, after they put up a whopping 59 points in Week 1. Baltimore and Tampa Bay were 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Saints and Browns, respectively. But both the Ravens and Bucs tumbled outright, with Baltimore falling 24-17 and Tampa losing 24-19. Add in the Vikings’ 9-3 win over the Bears, and the bookmakers were doing cartwheels in the risk room. But at least one bettor had the foresight to cash out nicely on an upset-riddled Sunday. At Caesars Sports, a customer put together this $500 underdog parlay: The bettor needed three upsets and got three upsets. At odds of +4952, or just shy of 50/1, the customer’s 500 bucks turned into $25,258. That’s a fine day’s work. Over the past week, Station Sports in Las Vegas took two seven-figure wagers from the same customer. The first was a $1 million bet on Chiefs' moneyline -145 vs. Broncos, in the Week 1 Monday night game. Kansas City rolled to a 31-10 victory, and the big bettor banked $689,655 profit, for a total payout of $1,689,655. But sports betting giveth, and sports betting taketh away. In the Thursday night Lions-Bills showdown, the customer came back with another $1 million bet, on Lions' alternate spread +1.5. That meant Detroit either had to lose by just one point or win the game outright. Instead, the Bills buried the Lions into a 21-0 first-half hole, and though Detroit put up a second-half fight, Jared Goff & Co. lost 41-31. So that’s a million-dollar meltdown. Oof. Speaking of the Thursday night game, contrary to the high-roller’s loss, the public made out like gangbusters, particularly because it was a high-scoring affair. At Caesars, a customer put $100 on a six-leg parlay tied to touchdown scorers, of which there were plenty: The odds of Allen scoring first and the other five players finding paydirt at any point were a hefty +50000, or 500/1 in easier-to-digest terms. But all six legs delivered, and the customer cashed out for $50,000. At Fanatics Sportsbook, a bettor turned a mere $25 into $7,500 profit before halftime. Odds of all three scoring were a healthy +20000 (200/1), but the customer utilized a 50% profit boost to hike those odds to +30000 (300/1). The home favorite winning and covering also paid for the public, and for a big bettor at DraftKings Sportsbook. The customer put $110,000 on Bills -5.5 (-108) to turn a profit of $101,851 (total payout $211,851). At Kalshi, a trader put $2,825 on Bills wideout Joshua Palmer Anytime Touchdown. Palmer was priced at 12%, which correlates to about +734 in betting odds. The customer didn’t have to wait long to get paid, with Palmer hauling in a 43-yard TD pass that put the Bills up 14-0 in the first quarter. The trader pocketed $20,723 in profit, for a total payout of $23,549. How about a more relatable wager amount of, say, $10? A Fanatics customer strung together six Anytime TD Scorers across the Sunday late window and the Sunday night Colts-Chiefs clash. By the time Indy-K.C. kicked off, the first four legs were in on a wager with massive odds of +90694, just shy of 907/1. Then Colts tight end Tyler Warren scored the game’s first TD midway through the first quarter, and Kelce scored in the first quarter, as well. That’s how 10 bucks becomes $9,074.94. On another $10 parlay, a FanDuel Sports customer went with First Touchdown Scorers, tabbing Ravens running back Derrick Henry, Bengals wideout Ja’Marr Chase and Bucs wideout Emeka Egbuka. Henry and Chase each broke the ice late in the first quarter, vs. the Saints and Texans, respectively. But interestingly, Browns-Bucs didn’t see a touchdown until five-and-a-half minutes into the third quarter. Fortunately for the bettor, that TD came from Egbuka. At odds of +28077 (about 281/1), that $10 bill transformed into $2,817. Prediction markets remain a controversial topic, but are still operating and seeing a lot of football trades made across the country. And there were some eye-poppingly big transactions over the weekend. At Polymarket, a customer put $423,110 on the Chiefs to not cover the 6.5-point spread vs. the Colts. It was a back-and-forth battle all Sunday night, ultimately going to overtime, and K.C. indeed did not cover in a 33-30 victory. The trader profited $360,428, for a total payout of $783,538. Other notable trade contracts: It’s not all about making big bets or cashing out huge on a 10-leg parlay. Which, to be clear, is rare. Sometimes, it’s about putting 10 bucks on a single straight bet, backing a long shot or semi-long shot, and getting a solid return on investment. For example, at FanDuel, Titans QB Cam Ward was 125/1 to score two touchdowns vs. the Eagles. Ward had the game’s first score, with 4:22 left in the first quarter, then ran it in again late in the third quarter while nearly engineering a big upset. Ultimately, Tennessee lost 24-20. But if you’d put a tenner on Ward to score two or more TDs, then you’d be sitting on $1,250 profit today. If you got frisky and put $100 on it, then you’d have $12,500. In the more realistic realm, Colts tight end Tyler Warren was +1500 in First TD Scorer for Sunday’s game vs. the Chiefs. He scored midway through the first quarter to put Indy up 7-0. Ten bucks on that would’ve netted $150, and a C-note would’ve paid out $1,500. And how about this, from Circa Sports here in Las Vegas: No Touchdown Scorer in the Bears-Vikings game was a +26000 bomb (260/1). Minnesota won an absolute snoozer of a game 9-3, with four field goals accounting for all the scoring. Circa took two bets on that market, at a whopping sum of $1 apiece. But those two customers turned that dollar into $260 profit. That $1 million Lions bet was the largest reported wager of the week. The next biggest actually got to the pay window, on one of the aforementioned upsets. A DraftKings Sportsbook customer put $250,000 on Vikings +4.5 (-102) vs. Bears. So Minnesota winning outright made an outright winner of that bettor, who profited $245,098 (total payout $495,098). Other notable major wagers on NFL Week 2 odds and college football Week 3 odds: And though not exactly a major wager, $2,155 is nothing to scoff at, either. Caesars Sports took that bet on Kentucky in-game moneyline +800 vs. Texas A&M, likely after the Wildcats went down 7-0 in the second quarter. But it was all Kentucky from there. The ‘Cats, 16.5-point road underdogs, put up the next 28 points en route to a shocking 31-21 road upset. So the bettor bagged $17,240 profit. With regard to all the aforementioned big bets and people taking fliers on six-leg parlays and such, just keep in mind that this is gambling. Keep your bet size and expectations reasonable. Never bet more than you can afford to lose

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Falcons Name Michael Penix Jr. Starting Quarterback In Week 3 vs. Packers

Help is on the way for the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Penix Jr. will start at quarterback for the Falcons on Thursday night against the Green Bay Packers, the team announced Monday. Thursday will be Penix's first start of the 2026 season. The Falcons are 0-2 and have the only offense in the NFL that has not reached the red zone over the first two weeks. Turnovers and inconsistency in the passing game have compounded the issues in Atlanta. Penix missed the final seven games of 2025 after injuring his ACL and had surgery on the knee. He returned to practice on a limited basis in the spring and for most of training camp, and he was cleared for 11-on-11 work before the third and final week of the preseason. Atlanta named Cooper Rush the starter for Week 1 after Tua Tagovailoa injured his oblique late in the week, was ruled out and has not returned to practice since. The Falcons lost 20-13 to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 1 and 34-3 to the Carolina Panthers in Week 2. Rush had three turnovers against the Panthers, one fumble and two interceptions, before rookie Jack Strand replaced him in the third quarter. Earlier this month, Penix said he wanted to be at full strength before returning. "I just told [head coach Kevin Stefanski] I'm not where I want to be right now," Penix said. "And I want to be able to be 100% so I can help the team win football games. And I'm really close. Really close."

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NFL, CFB Weekend Betting Recap: 'It Was An Extremely Rough Week For Bettors'

After a big Week 1 for the public betting masses, the pendulum sharply swung back in the NFL Week 2 odds market. Popular favorites came up big in Week 1 and contrastingly small in Week 2. So the bookmakers beat the bettors, particularly on Sunday. "It was an extremely rough week for the bettors, with five upsets and only seven favorites covering the spread," BetMGM trading manager Adair Horne said Sunday night. Oddsmakers from Las Vegas and across the country chimed in to recap the weekend that was in NFL and college football betting. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. In Week 1, the first wave of Sunday games was a massive boon for bettors. Favorites went wild, there were several high-scoring games, and many big-name players found the end zone, cashing a slew of First Touchdown/Anytime Touchdown props. In Week 2, not so much. Most notably, the Ravens were 8.5-point home favorites vs. the Saints and lost outright 24-17. Then, in a game with a two-hour weather delay in order to play the final two minutes, the Buccaneers — another 8.5-point home favorite — tumbled to the Browns 24-19. Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel, who after Week 1 declared the public was popping champagne corks, said those two results set the tone for oddsmakers to do some cork-popping. "The Ravens had the book chilling the sparkling water. The Buccaneers’ defeat finally popped the cork," Feazel said. "The Eagles, Ravens, Bears and Bucs were the most popular moneyline parlay selections, so the book needed at least one significant interruption to the bettors’ Sunday plans. "The book will typically survive the early slate if a touchdown-or-bigger underdog wins outright. We were handed three opportunities to find one." They got two with the Browns and Saints, and the Titans fell just short of stunning the Eagles. Philadelphia needed a touchdown with nine seconds left to claim a 24-20 victory, though it didn’t cover as a 7-point favorite. The Browns’ win was particularly satisfying at Caesars. "Anytime Cleveland is playing, the entire trading floor becomes Browns fans. We’re honorary members of the Dawg Pound," Feazel said half-jokingly. "So when that result came through after a long weather delay, there was certainly some excitement in the room." Horne said BetMGM also thrived off upsets, both early and late. In Sunday’s early window, along with the Browns and Bucs, the Vikings (+4.5) upset the Bears in a 9-3 slog of a game, and the Bengals (+2.5) took out the Texans, 20-6. In one of the five late-window games Sunday, the Raiders were 6.5-point road underdogs vs. the Chargers and landed a 26-14 upset. That helped blow up any moneyline parlays that might’ve survived the early kicks. But the public masses also got smacked by a scoring drought. The Under went 9-2 in the first 11 completed games on Sunday. The Over hit in the final three games, but that wasn’t nearly enough to save bettors’ day. "The best games for the books were basically low-scoring games where the favorite lost outright or didn’t cover the spread," Horne said. "Vikings vs. Bears, Eagles vs. Titans, Bengals vs. Texans and Raiders vs. Chargers." Added Feazel: "Underdogs and defenses came out swinging, offenses went quiet, and touchdowns were much harder to locate. In Week 1, it felt like everyone with a jersey found the end zone. "This Sunday, the end zone required a reservation." The masses managed to claw a little back in the few games where favorites won and covered, and/or there was some scoring. Thursday night, for example: Bills 41, Lions 31, with Buffalo a 5.5-point home favorite and a 54.5 total, the highest so far in this young season. That was after Week 1 prime-time games saw the Under go 3-1. "The book enjoyed a steady diet of low-scoring prime-time games in Week 1," Feazel said. "But Week 2 began with an all-you-can-eat touchdown buffet for bettors on Thursday night. "Seven of the eight most popular touchdown scorers cashed." Bills wideout D.J. Moore was the eighth, and he might’ve scored if not for exiting with a shoulder injury late in the first half. Said Horne: "The best games for betters were Lions vs. Bills, Commanders vs. Cowboys, Dolphins vs. 49ers and Seahawks vs. Cardinals." Dallas, a 4.5-point home favorite, rolled over Washington 37-20 in a game that cleared the 51.5 total. San Francisco smacked Miami 35-13, covering as a 12.5-point favorite, and Over 45.5 came in, as well. Seattle was a 4.5-point road favorite vs. Arizona and rolled 31-7, though that result fell short of the 41 total. "Overall, it was [still] a great week for the book and a tough one for bettors," Horne said. The public didn’t quite get what It needed out of college football Week 3 odds, either, particularly BetMGM customers, and especially in the Game of the Day, LSU vs. Ole Miss. The Tigers were 3-point road favorites and lost outright 32-24. "The book had a really solid day, particularly the live [in-game] book," BetMGM trading manager Seamus Magee said. "A lot of action came in on LSU when it was down in the first half. We needed Ole Miss outright and got there." No. 9 Texas A&M laying a huge egg vs. Kentucky also boosted the bookmakers. The Aggies were 17-point home favorites and trailed 28-7 late in the third quarter, en route to a 31-21 loss. "A&M going down outright was also a huge game for our in-play book," Magee said. The wild North Carolina State-Vanderbilt ending wasn’t a notable decision for BetMGM. Still, you had to feel sick for N.C. State moneyline bettors and, perhaps more so, N.C State +3 bettors. With seven seconds left, the underdog Wolfpack led 31-28 while facing fourth-and-7 from their own 5-yard line. Coach Dave Doeren decided to try to have QB Cayden Daniels run out the clock while taking a safety on the game’s final play. But shockingly, Daniels fumbled as he was tackled in the end zone. Vandy recovered with no time left and won 35-31. N.C. State not only didn’t finish off the modest moneyline upset, but didn’t cover as a 3-point ‘dog either. An absolute double-whammy of epic proportions, and arguably the bad beat of the season.

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