NFL Week 8 Betting Report: Is Lamar Back? Bettors Still Backing Bills, The Over

The marquee matchup in NFL Week 8 odds is Ravens vs. Bills — but only if Lamar Jackson returns from an ankle injury, one that has caused him to miss three games. Based on the point spread — Buffalo is a 3-point home favorite midweek — oddsmakers believe Jackson is a go for Sunday’s AFC showdown. "That’s the expectation," Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. "We are at Bills -3, and the line would’ve been north of Bills -7 if Jackson wasn’t playing. Probably a strong 7.5." More on that matchup, along with the unbeaten Vikings vs. the Lions on FOX, and a sharp play on a key AFC North clash, as we dive into NFL Week 8 betting nuggets. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. The Bills are 5-1 straight up (SU) and 4-2 against the spread (ATS) while coming off their bye week. The Ravens are 4-3 SU/2-5 ATS, losing two in a row, including a 35-13 Week 7 wipeout at home vs. the Bengals, despite leading 13-0 at halftime. Jackson’s return should shore up Baltimore’s woes on offense. Caesars Sports opened the Bills -3.5, and the line dipped to -3 (-121) on Tuesday night, which is where it remained Wednesday evening. "Jackson returning was already baked into that line," Feazel said. "But we’re seeing much more Bills action, even with Lamar back. It’s all one-way traffic here, Bills and Over, and I don’t expect that to change." The total is up to 54 from a 52.5 opener. Keep in mind that last season, these two teams met in the Week 1 Sunday night game. The Bills won a wild shootout 41-40, as the game smashed through the 51.5 total. There’s already sharp play on Over 52.5 and 53.5. And the public betting masses are sure to weigh in on the Over ahead of Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff. "I don’t think we’ll see much interest in the Under from the public," Feazel said. FOX has a key NFC North contest Sunday, when the Vikings (6-0 SU/5-1 ATS) visit the Lions (4-2 SU/1-4-1 ATS) at 1 p.m. ET. Minnesota is the last unbeaten team in the league, which was on no one’s bingo card. Detroit opened as a 3-point favorite at Caesars and advanced to -3.5 multiple times early in the week. On Wednesday evening, the Lions were -3.5 (even). "The Vikings are somehow undefeated. But I don’t think they’ve convinced the public that they are a dominant team," Feazel said. "We’re seeing mostly Lions action, and I don’t anticipate that changing." Professional bettor Randy McKay is already involved with Browns vs. Steelers, another 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday. Surprisingly, Cleveland is 5-2 SU and ATS, mirroring Pittsburgh’s record as the two teams battle for first place in the AFC North. McKay is on the Browns +3.5. Pittsburgh is at home but had the long trip to Paris in Week 7, where they posted a 16-10 win over New Orleans. "Teams playing the next week after an international game are 0-8 ATS and 1-7 SU," McKay said, citing the recent trend for such teams. "Plus, not much has changed since the first meeting this season, which Cleveland won. I’m expecting a close game, so I favor taking the points." In Week 4, the Browns were 2.5-point home underdogs and beat the Steelers 27-24 on Andre Szmyt’s 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds left. The Chiefs (5-1 SU/3-3 ATS) suffered their first setback last week, falling at Seattle 20-3 as 3-point underdogs. That’s had an effect on early bettors for Kansas City’s trip to Denver to face the Broncos (5-2 SU and ATS). And that’s despite K.C. dominating Denver in a 31-10 Week 1 home victory. In NFL Week 8 odds, the Chiefs opened -1.5, dipped to -1 a couple of times and was at -1.5 on Wednesday evening. "The Chiefs were a public ‘dog last week and got a lot of action. And they weren’t able to get bettors to the pay window," Feazel said. "On the side [this week], it’s been mostly Broncos money. And that’s how it’s been week in and week out this season." It’s worth noting that the Broncos have had a fair degree of luck while going 5-1 SU and ATS since losing at K.C. However, as Feazel said: "They still end up winning games and covering." All that noted, Feazel said he anticipates more Chiefs betting as the 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday kickoff approaches. "It’ll be more two-way action," Feazel said, while also noting the total dipped from 41.5 to 40.5. "There was a little sharper action on Under 41.5." NFL Week 8 odds kick off Thursday with the Panthers (3-3 SU and ATS) visiting the Packers (4-3 SU and ATS), at 8:15 p.m. ET. Both are coming off losses: Green Bay fell 20-17 at Detroit but covered as a 3.5-point underdog, while Carolina got smoked by Tampa Bay 43-13 as a 3-point home favorite. Caesars opened the Packers as 3.5-point home favorites and got to Pack -4.5 Sunday night. But Green Bay then backed up and has been at -3.5 (-117) since Monday morning. "We saw some sharp action on the Panthers at +4.5 and +4," Feazel said. "But overall, we’re seeing more Packers action, and I don’t expect that to change. And that’s coupled with the Over. "We’re likely gonna need the Panthers to win outright, in a lower-scoring affair. A lot of people will have Packers moneyline in their parlays." The Bears (5-2 SU and ATS) are rolling again behind Caleb Williams. Entering the Week 8 Monday night game vs. the Seahawks, Chicago is on a 4-1 SU and ATS upswing. Seattle ended a two-game skid by stuffing Kansas City 20-3 as a 3-point home favorite in the Week 7 Sunday night game. Caesars, in turn, opened the Seahawks -3 at home vs. the Bears, and on Wednesday night, it was Seahawks -3 (-117). "It’s possible we could see this line touch 3.5. But the Bears are attracting some attention, with Caleb Williams looking good," Feazel said. "We’re seeing two-way action on the spread and the total. "I would assume this is a scenario where Bears bettors come in on the moneyline, and Seahawks bettors are on the spread. So our best case would be Seattle by one or two points."

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The Brilliance Behind NFL's Best WR, Jaxon Smith-Njigba; Inside NFC West Arms Race

Lumen Field (Seattle) — Tyrice Knight said the quiet part out loud. I asked the Seattle Seahawks linebacker how surprised he was to see the Kansas City Chiefs lining up rookie cornerback Mansoor Delane by himself in press coverage against the best receiver in the league: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Knight shook his head. "They must not have been watching film," Knight told me following the Seahawks' 20-3 win over the Chiefs. "I don’t know why they left that cornerback out there like that. Maybe they had confidence in him, I don’t know. But you can’t do that with the best receiver in the league. You’ve got to give that guy some help." Facing single coverage a fair amount of the evening as Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo chose to blitz Sam Darnold 23.3% of the time (It wasn't a wise choice: Darnold finished 7 of 7 for 81 yards and a score vs. blitz, per Next Gen Stats), Smith-Njigba finished with nine receptions for 150 yards on 12 targets. He caught five of his six targets for 85 yards and a touchdown in man coverage against cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and Delane, according to Next Gen Stats. On a night when many expected Kenneth Walker III to strengthen his case for Offensive Player of the Year and get back at his former team, JSN instead showed why he’s the best skill-position player in football … and why the Seahawks will be proven right to let the star running back leave. "You can try your best, but JSN is going to get his," Seahawks tight end AJ Barner told me. "It was a great performance by him. That’s just what it is. Jaxon is going to get open. Sam’s going to find him. He’s just incredible. Every week he’s so consistent. It’s what we expect from Jax." Barner said a primary reason for the 24-year-old Smith-Njigba’s early success just four years into his NFL career is that he’s an old soul who shows up to work every day. His teammates follow that lead. "He’s such a talented kid, but it’s his mindset, too," Barner told me. "It’s never too big of a spotlight for him. He had 150 yards tonight, but when he shows up tomorrow, whether it’s 150 yards or 50 yards, he’s going to be the same guy. He’s going to come in and work. And he’s going to put the team before himself as well." Smith-Njigba, the league's reigning Offensive Player of the Year, is once again on a heater this season. He leads all receivers in receptions (58), receiving yards (867) and receiving touchdowns (8). If he were to do that for the entire season, Smith-Njigba would be just the fourth receiver to earn the receiving triple crown since the turn of the century. Cooper Kupp notched a triple crown with the Los Angeles Rams during the 2021 season, going on to help his team win the Super Bowl and taking home Super Bowl MVP honors. Now Smith-Njigba’s teammate in Seattle, Kupp understands the stress that he’s going through. "People are going to try and take him away, but he has the ability to stay engaged one play after the next, and when the opportunity comes to play high level football," Kupp said. "It’s really hard to stay engaged for a full game when the defense is trying to take you away. But he’s done an unbelievable job of that and making the plays when the ball comes his way." Smith-Njigba is also on pace to become the first receiver with 2,000 receiving yards. He’s the fourth player in NFL history to record 100 receiving yards in six of his team’s first seven games of a season. And Smith-Njigba has been a one-man wrecking crew for Seattle, accounting for 36% of the offense this season. One play against the Chiefs was a microcosm of Smith-Njigba’s dominance. Kansas City sent an all-out blitz late in the first half, with the Seahawks on the Chiefs’ 28-yard line. Delane had sticky press coverage on the Ohio State product on a fade ball, reaching in between Smith-Njigba’s hands to knock the ball away. But Smith-Njigba deftly anticipated the move, moving the ball to his outside left hand and palming the ball in an outstretched hand to keep it away from the rookie defender, holding it out as he went out of bounds for the touchdown. "He’s unguardable," Seahawks safety Nick Emmanori said. "And it’s pretty amazing to see. Like I’m sitting there and like, ‘Wow, this is a potential Hall of Famer.’ He’s a great receiver. Knowing that he’s getting double-teamed and they’re sending cloud [a second defender] his way, and he’s still making plays? It’s crazy. You can’t even fathom it." In what has become an annual tradition, Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider made a move to improve his team at a position of need ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline on Nov. 10 It started in Schneider’s first year as GM of the Seahawks, when he traded a fourth-round pick to the Buffalo Bills for Marshawn Lynch in 2010. This year, the Seahawks traded a third-year pick in the 2027 draft and a fifth-round pick in 2028 for Indianapolis Colts Pro Bowl offensive guard Quenton Nelson. The Seahawks had struggled to consistently get a push in the running game with Kenneth Walker III signing with Kansas City in free agency, and at times struggled to protect quarterback Sam Darnold. In Nelson, the Seahawks get an eight-time Pro Bowler and six-time All-Pro who has one year left on his deal with a base salary of $16 million. Seattle will pay a prorated portion of that salary of nearly $10 million. Seahawks left tackle Charles Cross could miss time due to a high-ankle sprain suffered in the team’s runaway win over the Chiefs last week, so Nelson provides depth up front. Current left guard Grey Zabel is expected to move over to right guard, allowing the 30-year-old Nelson to fill in at left guard. Swing tackle Josh Jones is expected to fill in at left tackle if Cross can't go. The Seahawks are in an arms race in the NFC West with the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams added Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Aaron Donald in the offseason, while the 49ers brought in Mike Evans. Seattle responded to those moves by adding its own Hall of Fame-worthy player two weeks before the trade deadline in Nelson. It’s the fourth consecutive year the Seahawks have made a big trade at the deadline, including Leonard Williams in 2023, Ernest Jones IV in 2024, Rashid Shaheed in 2025 and Nelson this season. Like Lynch, all three players signed new deals to stay in Seattle, so Nelson could be a long-term player for the Seahawks. A longtime NFL scout I spoke with liked the move for Seattle, noting that Schneider and Colts interim general manager Ed Dodds, who took over for the fired Chris Ballard, worked together in Seattle. "It’s a good two-way trade," the longtime scout told me. "Seattle has needed some upfront experience, especially to help Josh Jones out as he replaces [Charles] Cross outside. Seattle has good young offensive guards, but I see it more as a run game addition than a passing game addition to protecting the QB. "Indy has moved on from a really good drafting GM in Ballard. Dodd and Schneider are both solid personnel guys who know each other from Seattle way back and trust each other. Indy should have waited until after the season to make a GM move." But as the Seahawks made their big swing, it only took a few hours before the 49ers made one of their own. They responded to the Seahawks' move for Nelson by also taking advantage of the fire sale in Indianapolis and trading back for its 2016 first-round pick: defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. The 49ers should get Nick Bosa back soon from a calf injury, and reuniting him with Buckner should improve San Francisco’s pass rush. With San Francisco heading into the bye week and the Seahawks hosting the Chicago Bears in a nationally televised game on Monday Night Football, things are heating up in the NFC West. While the AFC and NFC Wests are heating up elsewhere, Los Angeles is a different story. The Rams and Chargers have combined for just one win at SoFi Stadium this year in what was expected to be a season the two teams could meet in their home stadium with the Lombardi Trophy on the line. Instead, the two will face off in Week 8 with much less at stake: bragging rights for Los Angeles in a stadium where the Arizona Cardinals (2) have more wins so far this season than the two teams combined. The Chargers (0-6) had a bye week to try and fix an embarrassing offense led by new coordinator Mike McDaniel. Head coach Jim Harbaugh said his team spent the week trying to simplify things so star quarterback Justin Herbert can play fast and decisively heading into the second half of the season. McDaniel remains the person directing the offense — for now. The reeling Rams (3-4), meanwhile, got an important road win over the Las Vegas Raiders and will look to build on that against the Chargers. "It was the first week that we were able to have a normal week of preparation with the way that things have been situated this whole season," Rams head coach Sean McVay said about his team’s win over the Raiders last week. "I think that was beneficial and this week will represent another opportunity to do that. We have to improve and we have to have even greater urgency than last week. I know we’re capable of doing it, players and coaches alike. I’m excited to start that prep with those guys." 5. Los Angeles Rams The Rams finally emphasized running the football in a road win over the Raiders, totaling 199 yards on the ground. Kyren Williams (99) and Blake Corum (93) are the third duo in the NFL this season to each record at least 90 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown in the same game (Kyle Monangai & D’Andre Swift, Week 1; Josh Allen & James Cook, Week 5). 4. Denver Broncos Broncos quarterback Bo Nix’s 62-yard rushing touchdown was the longest rushing touchdown by a QB since 2022. Nix, however, is still struggling to push the ball downfield – 64.4% of his passing yards are after the catch this season, the second-highest rate behind Jalon Daniels (65.5%), per Next Gen Stats. 3. Kansas City Chiefs The Seahawks pressured Patrick Mahomes on 39% of his passing attempts in Kansas City’s loss to Seattle. Mahomes finished 6-for-13 for 44 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception on those throws, posting a 22.6 passer rating. 2. Seattle Seahawks After earning a victory at home against the Chiefs, the Seahawks have little time to rest, hosting the modern version of Mahomes in Caleb Williams and one of the most innovative offensive minds in Bears head coach Ben Johnson, who said he wants to break the single-season NFL scoring record. 1. San Francisco 49ers The 49ers get a break during the bye week after suffering their first loss of the year on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. San Francisco needs Nick Bosa (calf) and Mike Evans (Achilles) to come out of the bye week healthy. "This is us. This is ‘The Dark Side.’ This is what we do." Seahawks defensive tackle Byron Murphy II on his defense’s dominating performance against the Chiefs.

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Sammy’s Sportsbook Whispers: Ohio State Has A Question Mark At QB

Following up on last week’s "Sportsbook Whispers," the best betting story in college football got even better last Saturday afternoon. UCLA covered again. Make that 7-0 straight up and against the spread, and all the Bruins regular-season win totals are "Over." Whether you bet 5.5, 6 or 6.5, you’re a winner thanks to a sensational first year from head coach Bob Chesney. UCLA (7-0 ATS) and Kentucky (7-1 ATS) are the best cover teams in the country. BYU, Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Oregon State and Utah are all 6-1 ATS. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Speaking of BYU, let’s pour one out for all the Cougar fans who thought Las Vegas perceived them as a top-10 team. I read over 500 social media comments — lots of them insanely disrespectful — all because I said BYU wasn’t a top-10 team and that UCF plus the points was the play. "I don’t make numbers with my feelings," Vegas oddsmaker Motoi Pearson cracked. "I had Cougs 19th before the UCF game and now they’re 21st. They’re still a really good team that can crash the College Football Playoff." The biggest question mark for me heading into the weekend is how Ohio State’s offense will look without starting quarterback Julian Sayin. A Heisman finalist last year, Sayin is out indefinitely with an arm injury, and it sounds like freshman Luke Fahey will start under center at USC. One projected look-ahead line last week was Ohio State -3. Circa Sports in Vegas opened Ohio State -7 on Sunday. "Lookaheads are lookaheads for a reason," former Las Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons told me. "USC scored seven points last weekend. They were awful. [Jayden] Maiava threw two picks. So, you have to drop their number. "I did some more homework on Ohio State. The Fahey kid might start, but I wouldn’t be surprised if [Tavien] St. Clair finishes. He’s a better prospect and he’s a lot bigger. They’ll make the switch if Fahey isn’t playing well. "And Ohio State is just a much tougher team than USC." That doesn’t mean bettors won’t pounce on a good number. "Oh, I took some [+7] with the dog," professional bettor Slice said. "I’ll take my chances against a young quarterback laying a touchdown on the road. It’s a solid spot for USC off that loss. If they’re any good, they’ll bounce back." Salmons has given this column a winner in six of the last seven weeks. It’s amazing he hasn’t gone full tout with a 900 number at this point. "I bet UConn +3," he said. "I think they win outright. Air Force is going to be down to QB3 and this UConn team is a lot better than people think." To the NFL, the Minnesota Vikings are the last undefeated team after Kansas City and San Francisco were dealt their first losses. Just like we all thought back in September. One American sportsbook was dealing the Vikings at 40/1 to lose last. I can’t imagine there was much liability there. There is liability, though, at Caesars Sportsbook on the Las Vegas Raiders winning the Super Bowl. It would be no bueno for the house if that actually happened. "It’s our biggest liability by far," Caesars head of football Joey Feazel told me. "And there’s no reason to think it won’t remain that way going forward. We’re also pretty heavy on Brock Purdy and Joe Burrow to win NFL MVP." Finally, I shared a stat last Thursday morning about Ben Johnson’s record as a play caller in primetime games. Dating back to his days as an offensive coordinator in Detroit, Johnson has called plays in 23 primetime games. And the Bears and Lions are a combined 18-4-1 ATS. I’m aware it’s not the biggest sample size in the world and there’s always going to be a faction of people that say "Trends don’t pay the rent." Generally, I agree, but Bill Belichick always delivered against rookie quarterbacks and Patrick Mahomes has been unbelievable as an underdog. Ben Johnson is a 3-point pup Monday night in Seattle and I will be going back to the well. Here’s hoping for 19-4-1.

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Favorite 'Dogs: Back Northwestern Over Oregon; Ravens To Upset Bills

It's Halloween weekend and things could get very spooky on the gridiron. Here's why I'm backing a couple of underdogs this weekend. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. In 2025, Penn State was coming off a trip to the College Football Playoff semifinals the previous year and entered the season as a consensus national title contender. Then the wheels came off and never went back on, as the Nittany Lions finished the regular season 6-6. A year later, another Big Ten team, Oregon, is following a similar path. Before the season, the Ducks were picked by many to win it all. A couple of months later, right before the trick-or-treating festivities begin, they are essentially eliminated from the Playoff conversation. Now, Oregon will face a hungry Northwestern team with a ferocious ground game, one that is averaging over 200 rushing yards per game. Oregon will be without quarterback Dante Moore for the remainder of the season. I don’t expect this lifeless bunch to bounce back in what has been a nightmare season. Guessing when — and if — Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson might play is a challenging proposition. But with the Ravens in last place entering November, I’ll bet on the two-time league MVP suiting up for the first time in nearly a month. While the Bills have a former MVP of their own in quarterback Josh Allen, their defense is still quite suspect. The Bills allowing 30.8 points per game (30th), alongside 386 yards per game (31st). The Ravens are 4-3. They are looking up at every other team in the AFC North and are desperate for a win on Sunday. It seems like Jackson is close to a return. And if he does, this is very much anyone’s game.

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QB Notebook: Settle Down With Your J.J. McCarthy Narratives; Time To Bench Daniel Jones?

Welcome to the Quarterback Notebook, where I’ll cover the past week in NFL quarterbacking — from the most interesting passers, plays and storylines to some other stuff that caught my eye while watching film this week. This week, we'll evaluate J.J. McCarthy's first start for the Giants, figure out what's behind Daniel Jones' regression, and look at a defensive trend that's giving (most) passers across the league fits. Let’s talk quarterbacks. The 2024 first-round pick is certainly making the most of this opportunity to start for the Giants, but let’s throttle back the hot takes before we anoint McCarthy as the next Sam Darnold or tar and feather his former coach, Kevin O’Connell, for not getting more out of him. Sunday’s game against the Texans was arguably the best of his career against a quality defense — so that 2025 game against the Cowboys defense doesn’t qualify — and it produced the most throwing highlights. McCarthy hit Malik Nabers with a perfectly placed back-shoulder ball on a fade route from the slot. He lined up with Nabers again on a tight-window corner route. He hit Malachi Fields on a sail route between two defenders. Those are undoubtedly good throws, but they're the kind of throws we’ve already seen McCarthy make in Minnesota. McCarthy’s always been willing to make those highly difficult throws to the perimeter; whether he can do it consistently is another matter. McCarthy throws with enough velocity to pull them off, but it takes a lot of effort. Here he nearly throws himself out of his shoes trying to muscle a ball to the sideline. Here’s another max-effort throw that ends up looking like a sinking fastball the catcher has to dig out. When McCarthy consistently hits these deep perimeter throws, he looks like a starting-level quarterback. But these aren’t high-probability throws — not even for quarterbacks with elite arm talent. McCarthy had the lowest dropback success rate of any starter in Week 7, which illustrates how volatile a passing attack built around deep throws can be. And McCarthy still doesn’t have other pitches to go to when he can't connect. He lacks the precision to consistently work underneath and the touch to throw over the middle. McCarthy’s biggest issue, which the Vikings tried desperately to fix, is his desire to throw every ball as hard as he possibly can. This can make short passes harder to catch than they need to be. If McCarthy can keep hitting deep, perimeter passes consistently, I’d expect this hot start to turn into a full-on breakout season. He’s off to a good start, hitting 8 of 13 attempts over 10 air yards and aimed outside the numbers, but it’ll take a much bigger sample to prove he can do it repeatedly. I’ll buy into the redemption narrative if this continues, or if McCarthy shows he can stay effective when those deep throws aren’t connecting. With the Colts firing long-time general manager Chris Ballard and trading Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner for pennies on the dollar, Indianapolis could be in the middle of a deadline fire sale. If this team is waving the white flag on the 2026 season, I’ve got a suggestion: bench Daniel Jones and see what the young backups, Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard, can do. Head coach Shane Steichen says he’s not considering benching Jones after he threw away a winnable game against the Vikings on Sunday. His game-ending interception was his seventh of the season, and the performance dragged his QBR to 40.3, 31st in the league. That’s lower than his 2024 QBR, when the Giants cut him midseason. The 2026 version of Jones looks a lot like the quarterback who flamed out in New York two seasons ago. And that’s why it’s probably a good time for Indianapolis to sit him. Jones doesn’t look fully healthy, which makes sense considering that he’s less than a year removed from tearing an Achilles. Watching Jones play in 2026 feels a lot like watching Kirk Cousins in Atlanta, when the veteran quarterback was coming off the same injury. He doesn’t look very mobile—which matters more for Jones than it did for Cousins—and looks uncomfortable when throwing on the move. The numbers back that up, too. Jones is averaging 1.3 yards per attempt when throwing on the run, per Next Gen Stats. That’s not even a full Kyler Murray worth of yards! In 2025, he averaged 7.7 yards per throw on the move. His completion percentage has dropped from 73% in 2025 to 25% this season. His success rate has plummeted from 50% to 13%. Jones’ inability to complete passes on the move is the main difference between his performance this season and what the Colts saw in 2025. Last season, the passing game was built around Jones’ ability to move. The Colts used him on bootlegs and nakeds to move the pocket and simplify his reads. Those plays haven’t been nearly as effective in 2026, and it’s had a domino effect on the rest of the offense. Jones hasn’t been accurate downfield, and he’s not a quick processor who can carve up defenses with short passes. Jones has always needed an offense built around his skill set to succeed. I’m not sure that offense exists with Jones in his current form. I doubt Richardson or Leonard would improve the Colts offense, but sitting Jones would protect him from further injury and prevent bad habits from forming and carrying over to next season. It’s been 17 years since Jim Johnson’s death, but the former Eagles defensive coordinator's influence is still felt across the league. Defensive coaches across the league are spamming his signature "double A-gap" fronts to put NFL quarterbacks in a mental blender. Even if you’re unfamiliar with the concept, you’ll recognize this defensive look if you’ve watched any games this season: two linebackers flank the center while the rest of the defensive line is spread outside of the guards. Defensive coordinators have been throwing these looks at quarterbacks for over a quarter-century, but they’ve really ramped up their usage over the last few seasons. In 2025, we saw 684 dropbacks against the double A-gap looks, per Pro Football Focus; in 2026, we’re on pace for 928! That hasn’t been a fun development for quarterbacks, who are averaging -0.24 expected points added per play on those snaps. Most of those have come in obvious passing situations, when defensive play callers can get creative with blitzes and coverage disguises. Putting six dudes on the line of scrimmage forces the offense to adjust their protection. It also creates uneasiness for the quarterback, who has to be ready for an all-out blitz. Defenses have sent an all-out blitz on just over 13% of their double A-gap snaps this season, but the offense still needs a solid protection plan just in case. They’ll often keep a running back in to block, which can also play into a defense’s hands when they drop out. It gives them one fewer receiver to cover. These looks can really mess with a quarterback’s process if they don’t have trust in their protection. And defensive coordinators can sniff that out from a mile away. If they sense any vulnerability, they’ll crowd the line of scrimmage and date the offense to sort it all out. The Eagles have seen the most double A-gap looks this season with 24. The Colts are second (23), followed by the Packers and Buccaneers (22), with most of those coming against rookie Jalon Daniels. You’re most likely to see these "mugged" looks against raw quarterbacks, but even some of the better quarterbacks have had issues against them this season. Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Brock Purdy, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen all have sub-80 passer ratings against double A-gap fronts, per PFF. Meanwhile, wily vets like Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers have carved them up. Jordan Love is my favorite quarterback to watch deal with these looks. His ability to make those fadeaways throws combined with his ambition as a downfield passer makes him a particularly fun watch. Love’s also a quick processor—an underappreciated facet of his game—and Packers coach Matt LaFleur called him "the best I've been around in terms of protections and adjustments," which also helps him face the pressure, real or imagined, created by the double-A gap looks. They test every aspect of playing quarterback. That’s what made Caleb Williams's crunch-time throw against the Patriots so impressive. The Patriots, one of the league leaders in double A-gap snaps, crowded the line of scrimmage showing blitz. Williams made an adjustment to protection just in case New England sent the house, and when they didn’t, he kept his nerve in the pocket, read out the coverage, and found Rome Odunze in a small pocket of space downfield with a marvelous throw. When a quarterback makes a play like that, the defensive coordinator just has to tip his hat and dare him to do it again. The best defensive coordinators will keep throwing these looks out there, waiting for a quarterback to slip up. The Buccaneers asked very little of Baker Mayfield in his return from a thumb injury. He attempted just three passes over 6 air yards, but he did hit a longer scramble-drill pass for a touchdown. That was enough to beat a Panthers team that played as if it had never practiced before. Atlanta’s defense should provide a better test for Mayfield. Since I’ve already covered my actual pick for throw of the week—Williams hitting Odunze in crunch time against the Patriots—I’ll go with another one from the Bears quarterback. This fireball that moved the chains on a key third-and-11. That ball traveled 29.6 yards in 1.1 seconds. It was a rocket and Williams gets style points for side-stepping the rush before firing it off, per Next Gen Stats. I’m not sure what Jones was thinking when he let this pass go. Tight end Will Mallory is bracketed by two defenders and Harrison Smith is in perfect position to pick off the pass up the seam.

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Which Bad Team Emerges to Win NFC South? Outlining Which Team Might Have Inside Track

The NFC South is seen by most as the worst division in the NFL, and it's a well-earned distinction. Since the NFL went to a 17-game schedule in 2021, only twice has a team won a division title with a losing record, and both came from the NFC South: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2022 (8-9) and the Carolina Panthers in 2025 (8-9), who both lost at home in the wild-card round. The division hasn't done much to change that perception this year. Carolina is atop the division with a 3-3 record, which would have it alone in last place in the NFC North or AFC North. The NFC South is hardly the only bad division in the NFL. The AFC South, despite having the 4-2 Jacksonville Jaguars, has fewer total wins than the NFC South, and by point differential, the NFC East is somehow 47 points worse. The fact remains that some team will win the division, and that's not an easy call to make. Three days ago, the Bucs had the worst record in the NFC at 1-5. Now, they're 1.5 games out of first with a tiebreaker edge on the Panthers after a surprising 43-13 win in Charlotte. If the Panthers lose at the Packers on Thursday night, you could argue that the winner of Sunday's Atlanta Falcons-Buccaneers game in Tampa might become the team to beat in the division. Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay have played with backup quarterbacks, with the Falcons opening 0-2 with Cooper Rush starting and the Buccaneers going 1-2 with undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels stepping in when Baker Mayfield injured his thumb. Michael Penix Jr. has thrown three touchdown passes in each of the last two games, and the Bucs rushed for 258 yards in routing the Panthers, so there's momentum on both sides. Sunday's Falcons-Buccaneers game has both teams' strengths going directly against each other, too. Atlanta ranks sixth in rushing yards per game and fourth in rushing yards allowed; Tampa Bay ranks third and second in the same categories. So will the Falcons' Bijan Robinson take control of the game, or the Bucs' Bucky Irving? To add to the fun, Tampa Bay's offensive coordinator, Zac Robinson, had the same job with the Falcons the last two years, and back in January, Mayfield took a shot at new Falcons coach Kevin Stefanski, upset that he didn't hear from his old coach when the Browns traded him to Carolina in 2022. "Still waiting on a text/call from him after I got shipped off like a piece of garbage," Mayfield wrote over the offseason. "Can’t wait to see you twice a year, Coach." For a division that's close in the standings — it could be a single game separating top and bottom by Sunday night — the three division games haven't been close at all. The Bucs won by 30 against the Panthers, who beat the Falcons (with Rush at QB) by 31, and the Falcons beat the Saints by 21. New Orleans has lost four of five entering its Week 8 bye, but the Saints also have more time to right the ship, with four division games in the final five weeks of the season. The Bucs are the only NFC South team that has outscored their opponents over the entire season, as they're only the third team in the last 15 years to be 2-5 and have a positive point differential. And it's a wild precedent, but the other two teams to do so — the 2018 Indianapolis Colts and the 2022 Jacksonville Jaguars — not only made the playoffs from a 2-5 start, but also each won a playoff game. Tampa Bay has the best defense in the division right now, ranking third in yards allowed, well ahead of Atlanta (19), Carolina (22) and New Orleans (28). The Bucs have 10 sacks in the last two games, so if Mayfield's healthy return can spark the offense, the other side of the ball is doing enough to win games. Division games will likely decide this year's NFC South champ, but it's also fair to look at remaining strength of schedule. The Bucs are 0-5 against teams currently with a winning record, but they also have the fewest games remaining against such opponents. They have only three games against teams with records better than .500, fewer than the Saints (4), Falcons (5) and especially the Panthers (7). Carolina's non-division opponents are a combined 32-15 this season, while the five teams Tampa Bay has lost to are a combined 24-9 right now. We saw this coming before the season, but with news that the Las Vegas Raiders will stick with Kirk Cousins for now and keep Fernando Mendoza on the bench despite four straight losses, it continues to be a remarkably quiet season for rookie quarterbacks. Seven weeks in, rookie quarterbacks have combined for just four touchdown passes (and three were from Buccaneers QB Jalon Daniels) and that's the lowest in any season since 2007, when there was one at this point. There were at least 20 touchdown passes thrown by rookie quarterbacks in eight of nine seasons between 2016-24, then just 14 last year, now four. The rookie we might see starting next? Arizona Cardinals rookie Carson Beck, a third-round pick out of Miami (Fla.) who has yet to take a snap, is waiting behind veteran starter Jacoby Brissett. Brissett isn't the reason the Cardinals have lost five of six, as they have the NFL's worst defense, giving up a league-high 29.7 points per game. But that means they're constantly trailing and Brissett has thrown an NFL-high 282 passes. There isn't an easy spot to pivot to either rookie, though. Las Vegas' bye isn't until Week 13, and Arizona's is Week 14, and coaches don't want to have a quarterback's first NFL experience be a run of crushing defeats. If there's a market for a veteran passer at the trade deadline, Cousins and Brissett would be natural targets, so that could create an opening to put rookies on the field as well. It's that time of the season where a coach's patience with a struggling kicker runs out. We've already seen the Los Angeles Rams move on from Harrison Mevis, and three other NFL kickers have already missed five field goals this season. The biggest name is the Kansas City Chiefs' Harrison Butker, who has never missed more than six field goals in a season, but is 11-for-16 after two more misses in Sunday's loss to Seattle. He hasn't made a field goal longer than 50 yards and is 2-for-6 on 50+ kicks, after being a 66 percent kicker on 50+ entering this season. "He's been one of the most consistent kickers in football," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said after the game. "He's off a bit, so got to fix it." Two kickers who have earned much less leeway are rookies: Green Bay Packers kicker Trey Smack, who is 11-for-16 like Butker, and New York Giants kicker Dominic Zvada, who is 13-for-18. Smack, a sixth-round pick, has missed four field goals in the last three weeks, including two in a three-point loss to the Lions on Sunday. Zvada, an undrafted rookie, has all five misses in the last three weeks, split between two games close enough that they went to overtime. Cutting a kicker can be expensive. San Francisco 49ers kicker Eddy Piñeiro has missed seven total kicks this year, including an extra point Sunday that meant San Francisco was down two scores late in a 29-20 loss to the Falcons. However, the 49ers signed Piñeiro to a contract this year that includes $8 million guaranteed over the next two years, so it's not as simple a financial decision as most kicker cuts are. And what if you can't even get your offense into field-goal range? Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott has five field-goal attempts in seven games, putting him on pace for 12 over a full season — seven fewer than his career low in his 10-year career. It'd be fine if he were busy with extra points, but Philadelphia is 29th in scoring.

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Reunion In The Bay: 49ers Reportedly Land DT DeForest Buckner From Colts In Trade

DeForest Buckner is heading back to where it all started. The Indianapolis Colts are trading the three-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle to the San Francisco 49ers for a 2027 fourth-round pick, according to The Ringer. The deal came hours after the Colts sent guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks, a sign that Indianapolis is fully committing to selling ahead of the Nov. 10 trade deadline. The Colts fired general manager Chris Ballard after a 26-20 Week 6 loss to the previously winless Tennessee Titans dropped them to 2-4. They fell to 2-5 with their loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. Buckner was drafted with the seventh overall pick by the 49ers in 2016 out of Oregon, and he spent his first four seasons there. He was named the team’s MVP in 2019, when the 49ers reached the Super Bowl. San Francisco traded him to Indianapolis the following March for the No. 13 overall pick, which it used on defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw. Buckner, 32, has been productive again this season after neck surgery cut his 2025 campaign short. He has 31 tackles, four sacks, a fumble recovery and three passes defended in seven games. He's also 14th in pressures (20) among defensive tackles, per Pro Football Focus. The 6-1 49ers needed help up front after injuries depleted their defensive line as star pass rusher Nick Bosa has missed five games due to a calf strain and Alfred Collins is out for the season due to a torn patellar tendon. The move continues a trend of San Francisco bringing back familiar faces after it reunited with linebacker Dre Greenlaw and wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. this past offseason. Buckner now returns to a 49ers team chasing a Super Bowl, the same goal it had when it traded him away six years ago.

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